International Maritime
Industry adviser David Bennett said he is upbeat about the trans-Pacific market in the new year because he believes the largest US trade lane is normalizing back to the seasonal peaks and valleys the trade was accustomed to before the pandemic five years ago.
“ We have forgotten what that is like,” he said.“ I see a nice pickup in volumes developing.”
Up-and-down rates
Despite the year-over-year decline in imports this fall, trans-Pacific carriers were successful in implementing bimonthly general rate increases( GRIs). Analysts and forwarders say carriers over the last several months have been able to keep a floor under spot rates through a combination of blank sailings and discipline because they agree a rate war would help neither carriers nor their customers.
Resisting the urge to slash freight-all-kinds rates while consistently pepping up GRIs has allowed carriers to push up spot rates and then watch them glide down. In early December, that strategy produced a double-digit percentage surge on a scale not seen since last summer’ s rush.
However, a proposed Jan. 1 GRI was not holding, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. Average spot rates from North Asia to the US West Coast as measured by Platts, also part of S & P Global, slipped 6.4 % sequentially to $ 2,040 per FEU in the week of Jan. 16, but were still up 60.6 % from the week of Dec. 12. The World Container Index assessed by Drewry pegged average Shanghai – Los Angeles rates at $ 2,909 per FEU as of Jan. 15, down 7.1 % from the previous week but up 38.3 % from early December.
“ Bookings are not really strong. There is no space shortage,” the carrier executive said.
Nevertheless, spot rates are considered by carriers and their customers to be at levels that should not push down pricing in the 2026 – 27 service contract negotiations that will ramp up in intensity in February. That’ s because spot rates are well above the current 2025 – 26 contract rates that were negotiated by midsize shippers last spring. Those contracts were priced about $ 1,700 to $ 1,850 per FEU to the West Coast and about $ 1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast.
Still, given the muted demand compared with last year, the environment appears to favor the customers.
“ Aggregate supply is up. Supply is going up more than demand,” O’ Brien said.“ That is the reality.”
email: bill. mongelluzzo @ spglobal. com email: mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com
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www. joc. com February 2, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 21