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Pre-Lunar New Year demand to give trans-Pacific first test of 2026

By Bill Mongelluzzo and Mark Szakonyi

Lunar New Year, during which factories in Asia close for at least a week, falls on Feb. 17 this year. atiger / Shutterstock. com

The seasonal rush of US imports before Chinese factories idle in mid-February for Lunar New Year will be the trans-Pacific trade’ s first major test of 2026, with forwarders and carriers divided on the strength of demand in a largely depressed market.

The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the industry a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. The surge in shipping before Chinese production significantly slows ahead of the Lunar New Year has historically pushed up spot rates, giving carriers better standing in trans-Pacific service contracts.

“ Importers are filling current orders, but they’ re not pulling forward inventory.”

The National Retail Federation( NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker report, forecast the first month-overmonth gain in import volumes( January from December) in six months, but noted that on a year-over-year basis, import volumes would remain negative compared with quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs.

“ There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’ re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shopping lull that comes each year,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’ s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement accompanying the group’ s import forecast.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in early January projected that import volumes through the complex would peak at upwards of 200,000 TEUs in the weeks of Jan. 4 and Jan. 11 before dropping to about 175,000 TEUs during the following three weeks. Imports are expected to rebound in mid-February as freight loaded just prior to the Lunar New Year lands in Southern California. Weekly laden imports to the Los Angeles-Long Beach complex averaged 193,212 TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.

Total US imports from Asia fell 7.9 % year over year in December, a fourth straight monthly decline that left annual volumes down 1 % from full-year 2024, according to PIERS. The timing of the pre-Lunar New Year cargo surge is affected this year by the later-than-usual holiday in Asia, which falls on Feb. 17. As a result, imports will likely increase in February and continue through the end of the month. The only question is the magnitude of the cargo spike.

Even though many forwarders do not see a“ surge” this year similar to the trans-Pacific surge experienced in January – February 2025, they say a modest increase in import volumes compared with December is likely leading up to the factory closures in Asia.

“ There is no catalyst [ for a surge ],” one forwarder told the Journal of Commerce.“ Importers are filling current orders, but they’ re not pulling forward inventory.”

According to the December Logistics Managers’ Report, the index reading was 54.2, down from November’ s 55.7, the lowest expansion rate since April 2024.

“ I don’ t see much inventory-building since the beginning of the year,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics.

Ken O’ Brien, president and CEO of Gemini Shippers Group, said the members of the group saw single-digit year-over-year declines in volumes in the fourth quarter due to the comparatively strong import volumes in 2024, although Gemini forecasts a 2 % to 5 % increase in trade growth in 2026.

Trans-Pacific spot rates cooling after up December spike

Container spot rates from Shanghai to New York and Los Angeles, in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 10,000

$ 8,000

$ $ 10,000 6,000

$ 4,000

$ 2,000

$ 0 LJan 2024

Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jan 2026

Shanghai to New York

Source: World Container Index assessed by Drewry

Shanghai to Los Angeles

20 Journal of Commerce | February 2, 2026 www. joc. com

February 2, 2026 | Page 20

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