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Items sent from China to the US via post will be charged a flat fee of $ 100, regardless of their value.
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“ The e-commerce platforms seem to be refocusing their efforts, with significant growth of exports to the European Union and Asia-Pacific replacing lost demand to the US,” he added.
Faced with such an uncertain and volatile trade lane, forwarders are taking a cautious approach to the market, Van de Wouw said.
“ Around 46 % of their procured volumes remain in the spot market, reflecting a belief that rates may yet fall further,” he said.“ Their wait-and-see approach favors flexibility over long-term commitments— for now.”
Airlines recalibrating Asia – US capacity amid e-commerce decline
Air freight capacity from Asia Pacific to North America, with weekly change
Capacity tonne
120,000
100,000
80,000 100,000 60,000
40,000
20,000
“ The e-commerce platforms seem to be refocusing their efforts.”
0 |
|
|
Week 01, 2022 |
Week 20,
2023L
|
Week 39, 2024 |
Capacity tonnes Weekly % change
60 %
40 %
20 %-60 % 0 %
-20 %
-40 %
-60 %
Weekly % change
Average spot rates from China to North America recovered to $ 5.14 per kg in the third week of July after falling below $ 5 per kg for the first time in almost two months in late June, according to the Baltic Air Index( BAI). China – North Europe rates— at $ 4.06 per kg in the third week of July— have remained above $ 4 per kg since March.
Dimerco Express Group estimates total China-US cargo volumes plummeted 60 % in May and June, with e-commerce bookings down about 50 %. In a July market outlook, the Taiwan-based forwarder said it saw no signs of recovery in e-commerce volumes, adding that airlines continue to cancel scheduled freighter flights.
Positive growth areas
However, there are bright spots in the gloomy outlook. Demand from Southeast Asia— particularly Thailand and Vietnam— was rising ahead of the“ reciprocal” tariff deadline on July 8.
“ Intra-Asia traffic is holding strong, especially on routes linking China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore,” said Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group.“ Capacity on these lanes is tight, and we’ re seeing higher rates compared to the same period last year.”
The summer season also brings increased demand for perishable exports on the trans-Pacific, both out of Asia and on the backhaul routes, good news for airlines facing such dramatic cuts in e-commerce volume.
“ Air imports from Asia are expected to rebound and grow during the summer months, driven by the early peak shipping season. Shippers are ramping up volumes, particularly toward Asia, with a growing shift from ocean to air,” the forwarder said.
Air freight space on the westbound routes will likely remain tight, with possible booking delays or rollovers, and Dimerco advised pre-booking at least five to seven days in advance for high-volume or time-sensitive cargo.
Source: Rotate © 2025 S & P Global email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
14 Journal of Commerce | August 4, 2025 www. joc. com