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In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50 % of air freight volumes from China to the US, filling dozens of freighters every day. Data from air cargo analyst Rotate showed that in the days following May 2, 40 freighters per day were pulled out of the trans-Pacific.
“ The air cargo market is losing altitude amid so much uncertainty.”
The International Air Transport Association( IATA) noted in early July that tariffs and the de minimis exemption removal disrupted established air cargo flows, forcing carriers to adjust or redeploy capacity on certain routes.
“ Uncertainty remains high, which impedes planning and optimization along the supply chain, and further loss of momentum in the coming months cannot be ruled out,” IATA warned.
Refocusing e-commerce efforts
Tim van Leeuwen, head of consulting at Rotate, said China – US air cargo demand fell 28 % year over year in May, driven by declines in both general air cargo and e-commerce, with preliminary June figures showing the trend has continued.
“ Direct China – US freighter capacity in June was down 11 % compared to March, wiping out capacity growth we have seen over the past year and returning to similar capacity as June 2024,” van Leeuwen told the Journal of Commerce.
Asia— about 20 B777 freighters per day equivalent— is more indicative of current capacity growth out of the market,” he said.
Air cargo rates from Ho Chi Minh to New York and Chicago slipped to $ 6.28 per kg and $ 6.00 per kg, respectively, in late July after peaking at $ 6.72 per kg in mid-June, according to Freightos Terminal air cargo rate data. Levine said the slight easing of rates reflected capacity additions to the lane during a final push before the July 9 end of the 90-day pause on tariffs.
“ A US-Vietnam trade agreement that sets tariffs at 20 % could push some shippers to source elsewhere, but even at 20 %, manufacturing would still be less expensive there compared to other countries like China,” he said.
“ With so much uncertainty about what tariffs will be for other countries, many shippers may be unlikely to shift sourcing elsewhere just yet,” Levine added.
Dmitry Kulish, general manager for Asia-Pacific air cargo at Air Cargo Network Group( ACN), an association of air freight experts and logistics providers, said the Vietnamese export business was growing fast.
“ We see the global trend of shifting production across the Asia-Pacific region for some time now, and we definitely pay close attention to fast-growing markets,
Minh Tuan Pham / Shutterstock. com
especially Vietnam,” Kulish told the Journal of Commerce.
Although confident of future growth in Vietnam, ACN is“ keeping a close eye” on tariffs and trade policy at a time when“ political decisions can be unpredictable,” he added.
The latest quarterly DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index survey, results of which were released July 10, also found increasing interest in Southeast
Asia among local air cargo traders, with almost 30 % of local air traders reporting an increase in urgent orders following the 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs initiated on May 14.
“ As the trade landscape evolves, local air traders have identified Southeast Asia as the top market for trade potential,” DHL said in the index report.
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com www. joc. com August 4, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 13