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To snare a greater share of the cross-border market , Dachser is investing in its own asset-free e-commerce solution called Global Sky Express that will offer long-haul transport , customs clearance and optimized last- and first-mile solutions .
While forwarders puzzle over how to capture more of the B2C business , any conversation around e-commerce and how long air freight can depend on its volume always comes back to the growing regulatory attention being placed on Chinese imports . The US de minimis value threshold is a generous $ 800 , but van de Wouw said even if that level was reduced to $ 150 , most products ordered online would still fall below the benchmark .
“ Temu and Shein have tapped into a rich vein of business ,” he noted . “ They are catering to millions of consumers in the US and Europe and if they don ’ t supply them , somebody else will step in . Trade follows the path of least resistance , and someone will find a way to link the consumers in Europe and the US to these manufacturers in China .”
The only caveat , van de Wouw said , was whether the online platforms would be financially sustainable in the long term , “ but there is no visibility on that .”
A ‘ messy ’ fourth quarter
For other air cargo shippers , the ongoing e-commerce boom and Red Sea disruption has turned seasonal benchmarks upside down , with freight rates rising sharply through the traditionally slow summer months and expected to remain elevated at least through the end of the year .
Average global air cargo rates jumped from $ 2.30 per kilogram in the first quarter of 2024 to $ 2.45 per kg in the second quarter , according to data from air cargo analyst WorldACD . The upward trajectory continued through July , when pricing jumped 12 % year over year to $ 2.50 per kg , the highest monthly increase so far in 2024 .
Global volumes also rose 12 % in July , led by growing tonnage out of origins in Asia and the Middle East , according to WorldACD .
The unseasonal demand was similarly reflected in the Baltic Air Freight Index ( BAI ), calculated by air cargo analyst TAC , which ticked up 2.2 % sequentially and 10 % year over year in the week ending Aug . 12 .
“ Market sources are divided as to whether peak season rise has already arrived early or whether there is a further surge in rates to come in the weeks ahead — but generally agree that the market has been unusually firm for this time of year ,” Hong Kong-based TAC said in a mid-August market update .
“ The Chinese companies aren ’ t pushing packages into the US ; they are being pulled in by consumers .”
Van de Wouw said the underlying fundamentals driving air freight demand and rates would persist through traditional peak season in the fourth quarter and likely into next year .
“ There is a consensus that it could get pretty messy in Q4 ,” he said . “ I am even hearing companies talking about imposing peak season surcharges at the end of August or beginning of September , which is early .”
email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com
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14 Journal of Commerce | September 9 , 2024 www . joc . com