Surface Transportation

Domestic rail volume jumped 10.9 % in Q2, the highest growth rate since Q2 2021. Mario Tama / Getty Images

Rail satisfaction suffers amid worries over drayage, tender rejections

By Ari Ashe

Early exam

The record volume represents the first major stress test for railroad and IMC drayage networks since the pandemic- related freight surge.

Average US Class I intermodal train speeds declined 1.2 % year over year to 28.3 miles per hour during the second quarter, according to data from the Association of American Railroads.

The slowdown intensified in June, when average speeds fell 4 % from a year earlier. BNSF Railway and Norfolk Southern Railway reported the largest declines. Five of the six Class I railroads reported slower train speeds in June compared with the same month last year. The only exception was Canadian Pacific Kansas City, which was in the middle of service disruptions last summer in the Southeast US.

While higher intermodal volume means more revenue opportunities for railroads and intermodal providers, it also increases the risk of slower trains, delays in picking up and delivering containers, and other issues related to drayage and equipment.

Intermodal providers have already acknowledged delays in drayage operations in key cities such as Chicago and Dallas, among other locations.

The Journal of Commerce forecasts that railroads will haul between 2.33 million and 2.53 million domestic containers during the third quarter, which would set yet another quarterly record.

The model assigns a 99.97 % probability that third-quarter volume will exceed the 2.12 million loads hauled a year ago and a 95.1 % probability that volume will increase sequentially.

The forecast assumes truckload-to-intermodal conversions will continue as elevated highway rates encourage shippers to seek lower-cost rail capacity.

email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com

www. joc. com

Shippers at mid-year are less satisfied with North American intermodal service than they were at the end of 2025, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Service Scorecard( ISS), noting how double-digit growth in volume has caused service to degrade from where it was during the freight recession.

The survey, which was conducted in May and June and included more than 160 shippers and intermodal marketing companies( IMCs), found that approximately 87 % of IMCs were satisfied with railroad service during the first half of 2026, down from 91.3 % during H2 2025. Nearly 88 % of shippers were satisfied with their IMC partners during the most recent period, down from 93.9 % in the last ISS.

“ When you start throwing the amount of growth that has come at [ railroads ] in pretty short order, everyone needs a minute.”

The lower satisfaction levels came as domestic intermodal volume increased 10.9 % year over year in the second quarter, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA). Although satisfaction remains high overall, the decline is a warning signal for intermodal providers to avoid the unreliable service that angered shippers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Railroads hauled more than 2.35 million domestic containers— a new record for any quarter— and the Journal of Commerce forecasts a 95.1 % likelihood that third quarter volume will grow sequentially, possibly as high as 2.53 million loads between July and September.

“ When you start throwing the amount of growth that has come at [ railroads ] in pretty short order, everyone needs a minute to build their plan,” Darren Field, president of J. B. Hunt Transport Services’ intermodal division, said during a July 15 earnings call.“ There will be blips along the way if growth shows up unexpectedly or if we and our customers are unable to forecast it and( can’ t) communicate what’ s coming; that’ s what makes me concerned.”

The survey confirms that perception: more than 85 % of IMCs said customers shifted freight from trucks to intermodal during the first half, compared with only 10.9 % when asked the same question in late 2025. More than 54 % of

September 7, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 41