International Maritime

Habben Jansen believes all container carriers will resume Suez and Red Sea transits by the end of the year unless the security situation deteriorates again.

The return of Red Sea transits has ramifications for European ports, and even with the gradual resumption of Suez transits, pockets of congestion could start to build, according to Destine Ozuygur, senior analyst at Xeneta.

“ At European ports, the shorter transit times could lead to some overlap with delayed arrivals around the Cape of Good Hope that are already en route,” Ozuygur said.

“ To what degree, it’ s hard to say because it depends on how well each string is being managed and if other carriers follow suit in the immediate weeks ahead,” she added.

The diversions around southern Africa tied up approximately 8 % of global tonnage, mitigating overcapacity that analysts anticipate will expand at a faster clip next year and in 2028.

In February 2025, Maersk told investors that its profitability hinged on whether there was an industry-wide return to Red Sea transits. Thus, the speed at which ocean carriers return to the Red Sea will factor into the size of the tonnage glut ahead.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

Hormuz return comes with‘ massive’ risk for carriers, even when war ends

By Greg Knowler

Any hoped-for rapid resumption of ocean transits through the Strait of Hormuz once a US-Iran peace agreement finally sticks will be slowed by vigorous risk assessments from safety-conscious carriers reluctant to fully restore pre-war routings, analysts warn.

Almost six months of ship attacks, on-again, off-again ceasefires and start-stop Hormuz transits have left carriers with little incentive to put ships, crew and cargo in harm’ s way by returning to the Persian Gulf too early.

“ Going back into the Gulf is a massive risk,” Neil Dekker, senior analyst at consultancy Infospectrum, told the Journal of Commerce.“ Every container line executive will be thinking that the risks are just too much at the moment.”

“ If you start putting ships in, and then something starts up again, you can’ t get them out,” Dekker added.“ If one of the global operators was to go in there with a 14,000-TEU ship and the worst-case scenario happens and the ship and cargo are lost, apart from the insurance, the reputational damage to that carrier would be massive.”

More than 120 container vessels were trapped inside the Persian Gulf when US and Israeli strikes on Iran started on Feb. 28. It took several months for carriers to get most of the ships and crew out and they will be in no rush to return en masse.

That was spelled out by Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Sand noted that“ a trustworthy and permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran leading to a free and safe-to-navigate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” was required before carriers would begin a full-scale return of service networks via Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.

But a comprehensive peace agreement of that nature

www. joc. com is nowhere in sight, despite President Donald Trump’ s repeated declarations that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Through August, ships were hit by Iranian projectiles every week while transiting the strait and ongoing rhetoric from both sides does not suggest an end to hostilities is near.“ We are not going to see a full return to pre-crisis service networks in and around the Middle East soon, let alone a return that’ s identical to pre-crisis networks,” Sand said.“ There will be changes, and it’ s going to take time.”

Two-phase recovery

That recovery will be in two phases, according to Sand, with phase one the return of feeder and regional services into Persian Gulf ports. The smaller services carry lower risk if disrupted and will form the foundation for reactivating intra-Gulf trade that has fallen from 21 services prewar to 10 today.

Phase two will be the return of main long-haul services on Asia-Europe and Asia-North America trades. These carry the highest volumes and the greatest supply chain risk should there be a sudden deterioration in the security situation.

“ If you start putting ships in and then something starts up again, you can’ t get them out.”

Before the war started on Feb. 28, Xeneta data shows there were 99 container services operating in the Persian Gulf, with 488 ships deploying a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million TEUs, or about 10 % of the global container fleet. By mid-June, just 11 services with 18 ships remained active, representing 74,000 TEUs.

The displacement and diversion of those 470 ships have had a devastating impact on Dubai’ s Jebel Ali port complex, the region’ s largest hub that handled 15.55 million TEUs in 2025. In the second quarter, the

September 7, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 31