Guide to Inland Distribution & Warehousing

Special Report

COMMENTARY

By Daniel Colonna

Nobody is the villain here; both sides are following their own economics.

Every experienced broker has lived through this scenario: a truck carrier signs a lane at $ 2 per mile, runs it cleanly for six months, and then the market turns. Suddenly, there’ s“ no capacity,” the truck is on the spot board chasing $ 3 per mile, and the annual rate you negotiated is worth less than the paper it’ s printed on. No one is accountable, and there is no Plan B.

We treat the long-term request for proposal( RFP) as a sign of a mature, disciplined supply chain, but at best it’ s a handshake that both sides drop when numbers don’ t work in their favor anymore. And in this market, that moment comes faster than it used to.

Start with how the waterfall actually behaves. A shipper awards a lane to a primary carrier, with a second and third in line to catch overflow. Seems orderly enough, but then spot rates climb above the contract, and the primary stops accepting tenders, then carrier number two gets the call and says the quiet part out loud:“ I wasn’ t your primary, so my number is $ 3.” The tender falls down the list and ends up landing, where else, on a broker.

Shippers do the same thing in reverse. When rates soften, a shipper being solicited daily with cheaper pricing will drop a primary carrier for as little as a nickel a mile. I’ ve watched it happen for three years running. Nobody is the villain here; both sides are following their own economics, and that is the whole point. A one- or two-year RFP asks everyone to ignore their own economics for 12 months. No one does.

Now, consider that people are only beginning to price in the fact that a truck’ s variable costs never sit still. Fuel, tires and insurance all move, and the cost of capital has joined them. With the Federal Reserve holding its target range at 3.5 % to 3.75 % and markets betting on higher-for-longer rates, commercial truck financing now runs from roughly 8 % for the strongest credit to well above 30 % for everyone else.

That’ s the grinding phase of a multi-year shakeout, with the carriers most exposed being the mid-sized fleets that expanded during the 2020 – 21 boom. These are now servicing expensive equipment debt against softer rates than they were promised.

A fixed 12-month rate is a bet on the survival of a counterparty, and the carrier who signed your lane in January may not be in business by August. When that carrier folds mid-contract, turns out the binder in your filing cabinet won’ t be moving a single load.

So what does work? It’ s the model many of us actually run, even if the industry doesn’ t like to say so out loud.

It is a model based on relationships and price-to-the-market, backed by a deep, vetted carrier pool. Here, competitive pricing is earned by consistently winning volumes rather than holding carriers to a rate that stopped reflecting market pricing months ago.

On the worst days, you’ ll see the value; because when the contracted carrier walks, the broker with depth is your plan B and your plan C. COVID-19 proved it when trucks vanished and supply chains stalled. It turned out the shippers who kept moving weren’ t the ones with the thickest contracts but those whose partners found capacity. Network beats paperwork.

Of course, this doesn’ t mean you shouldn’ t bother making agreements. Repetitive, predictable freight can and should be planned around. But if you are going to run an RFP, cap it at six months, because anything longer just means you’ ll have to renegotiate.

It is time to retire the idea that a fat binder of annual contracts equals a mature supply chain. Maturity is a network built to absorb volatility— flexible pricing, real capacity, and partners who show up when contracts fall. In a market this cyclical, with money this expensive and the carrier pool this thin, risk comes from rigidity. RFPs break before they bend, so stick to the flexible model.

email: dcolonna @ fusiontransport. com

Bozeman acknowledged there is no clear timetable.

“ There is judicial discretion on the timing of post-trial motions,” he said.“ This could be years from an appeal perspective because there are various stages of appeal as well.”

Lee said Robinson’ s acquisition strategy remains unchanged despite the litigation. The company completed the acquisition of DeSpir Logistics during the quarter and

www. joc. com continues evaluating both tuck-in acquisitions and larger strategic opportunities.

“ We feel very good about the facts of the case... it does not at all change our capital allocation strategy, nor does it change our focus on M & A,” Lee said.

email: contactdanronan @ gmail. com

September 7, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 23