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Still-soft US spot truckload market starts to tighten

By William B . Cassidy

The US truckload spot market is heating up as summer ends , with load volumes increasing as the peak pre-holiday shipping season for trucking gets under way . That ’ s tightening capacity and load-to-truck ratios in certain inland distribution markets , although not universally .

But truckers shouldn ’ t get too excited about demand and shippers don ’ t need to panic about truck supply . The long-term truckload outlook is still “ flattish ” heading toward 2025 , according to Dean Croke , principal analyst

“ We ’ re still seeing softer volumes over the longer arc of time .”

for DAT Freight & Analytics .

“ We ’ re still seeing softer volumes over the longer arc of time ,” Croke told the Journal of Commerce . But after Labor Day , outbound spot truckload capacity at key distribution points such as Allentown , Pa ., Charlotte , NC , and Atlanta is getting tighter .

September does typically see a seasonal increase after

Dry-van truckload spot rates remain close to 2023 lows

Average US truckload spot rates , in USD per mile , excluding fuel surcharges

USD average rate per mile

$ 2.4 $ 2.2

$ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 1.0 1.8

$ 1.6 $ 1.4 $ 1.2 $ 1.0

L

Source : DAT Solutions

Nov , Jan 2022 2023

Jul

Jan 2024 Dry Van Flatbed Refrigerated

Jul

© 2024 S & P Global a post-July 4 slowdown . This year , freight volumes rose in July before receding in August .

As outbound volumes rise , spot rates tend to follow , although the increases have not been dramatic . In the Allentown market , DAT ’ s outbound rates to Charlotte rose from $ 1.79 per mile on average in August to $ 1.87 per mile in the previous seven days as of Sept . 5 .

That ’ s still lower than DAT ’ s $ 2.01-per-mile national dry-van average rate so far in September . The average rate was $ 2.12 per mile in September a year ago .

Some inland distribution markets are seeing an earlier-than-usual increase in the number of loads moved , Croke said . End-of-month volumes , Labor Day weekend and early Halloween retail sales are all helping to push spot truckload volumes higher .

Some of the cargo moving early are likely imports brought into the US ahead of any potential disruption from a possible longshore labor strike at East and Gulf coast ports this fall .

The DAT load-to-truck ratio — a measure of demand — in Allentown was 9.9 on Sept . 4 . That compares to 6.5 loads per truck on average for the prior 30 days . In Charlotte and Atlanta , load-to-truck ratios were 5.4 and 5 , respectively .

“ They distribute a lot of outbound freight from Allentown to Charlotte , Boston and Chicago ,” Croke said . According to DAT ' s Market Condition Index , Allentown , Philadelphia and Harrisburg , Pa ., were all expected to experience tight truckload capacity during the first week of September .

Annualized shortfall

However , the uptick in spot market demand in distribution hotspots hasn ’ t translated into surges in volume or rates elsewhere . Overall , DAT spot truckload volumes were down 17 % year over year in the last week of August , at the lowest level since the same period in 2017 .

Truckstop . com saw a similar pattern in its data . Total volume on Truckstop ’ s load boards increased 6 % week over week , although load posts were down 7.6 % from the same week a year ago and 35 % below the five-year average for the end of August .

That doesn ’ t necessarily mean less freight is being

42 Journal of Commerce | September 23 , 2024 www . joc . com