Asia Shipping : Third-Quarter Review and Outlook

Special Report

launched a revamped China-Bangladesh BBX2 service linking Shanghai , Kaohsiung , Ho Chi Minh City , Port Klang and Chittagong on Aug . 30 .

OOCL said shippers have switched to using intra- Asia services to South Asia and the Middle East after mainline carriers ended calls when they began diverting Asia-Europe services around southern Africa .

“ This has resulted in the strong performance of Asia-Indian subcontinent and Asia-Middle East trades ,” an OOCL spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce .

Post-Gemini rate hikes ?

Constantin Baack , CEO of MPC Container Line , said the hub-and-spoke network proposed by the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Gemini alliance will create new demand for intra-regional trades .

“ We believe it will fuel demand for feeder services once this alliance up and running [ early next year ],” Baack said during a company earnings call on Aug . 28 . The Hong Kong forwarder agreed , pointing out many Asian ports will lose the mainline connections currently provided by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd at the same time as countries in the region see continuing strong economic growth .

“ It seems the trade lane has found a balance between supply and demand .”

“ We think intra-Asia rates will rise simply because we don ’ t think intra-Asia operators such as TS Lines and Regional Container Lines will fill the capacity gap left by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd when their Gemini network concentrates deep-sea calls at three or four hub ports in the region ,” the source said .

Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said the Gemini network is being finalized and will be confirmed in September when cargo space will start to be sold ahead of Gemini ’ s launch next February .

The preliminary network unveiled last January has been tweaked for operational reasons , Habben Jansen said during an online briefing on Aug . 26 . He did not comment on whether the changes were made following pressure from officials in Hong Kong and Busan to improve port connectivity after both were largely relegated to feeder ports in the initial Gemini network .

“ Asian economies such as Vietnam , the Philippines and Indonesia are forecast to grow by 6 % to 7 % next year on top of this year ’ s 5 % to 6 % increase ,” the Hong Kong-based freight forwarder executive said . “ But these countries will see fewer long-haul direct calls , and instead , shippers will have to rely on feeder services to connect with Singapore or Yantian . Rates are bound to increase .”

Falling volumes , rates signal end to early Asia-Europe ocean peak season

By Greg Knowler

The early peak season on the Asia-Europe ocean trade that began in April appears to be drawing to a close as European import demand slows and spot rates fall sharply off peak levels reached in July .

Although the current rate is four times higher than this time last year , average Asia – North Europe pricing has lost more than $ 2,900 per FEU since early July , falling to $ 5,565 per FEU in the week of Sept . 6 , according to Platts , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global .

Asia – Mediterranean spot rates have followed a similar pattern , falling by more than $ 2,300 per FEU to $ 5,800 per FEU during the same period .

Carriers deployed extra loaders on the trade lane to compensate for the high demand and port congestion at both ends , but as demand slows , the excess capacity is beginning to assert itself on the market .

Markus Panhauser , CEO for Germany and Switzerland at DHL Global Forwarding , said orders advanced by shippers because of the longer transit times via the Cape of Good Hope meant Asia-Europe cargo was shipped one to two months earlier than usual .

“ The bookings in August were strong , but there is a 10 % decline in bookings for September sailings ,” Panhauser told the Journal of Commerce , although he added that there were strong forecasts from all customers through the fourth quarter .

Asia – Europe spot rates sliding from July highs

Container spot rates from Asia to N . Europe and Mediterranean , in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 9,636

$ 8,000

$ 6,000 $ 10,000 $ 4,000

$ 2,000

$ 0 L Jan 2023 Jul Jan 2024

Aug Jul , 2024

North Asia to UK Continent

North Asia to Mediterranean email : keithwallis @ hotmail . com

Source : Platts , S & P Global

© 2024 S & P Global

20 Journal of Commerce | September 23 , 2024 www . joc . com