September 23, 2024 | Page 18

Asia Shipping : Third-Quarter Review and Outlook
Special Report

Watch this space

Demand bump could drive moderate rate boost on intra-Asia trades
By Keith Wallis
A pre-holiday cargo rush that could start in early September is expected to drive a rebound in intra-Asia ocean rates that had softened a bit in August due to the influx of new capacity and reduced port congestion even as overall demand remained strong .
“ Carriers are evaluating whether there will be a cargo rush in September ahead of festivals in Asia , including China ’ s Golden Week holiday from Oct . 1 ,” a spokesperson for FIBS Logistics told the Journal of Commerce . “ Hence , they are considering spot rate increases , although the hikes are not likely to be that aggressive .”
“ Cargo volumes are still strong as we ’ re heading into the traditional peak season for intra-Asia trade ,” a senior executive at a Hong Kong-based freight forwarder told the Journal of Commerce . “ While freight rates have plateaued , it wouldn ’ t take that much of an increase in cargo demand for rates to head north again .”
Ocean Network Express ( ONE ) said although it hasn ’ t yet seen a “ significant rush ” ahead of the October holiday , “ the situation could change quickly , so we will continue to monitor closely .”
Carriers including SITC and Cosco Shipping Holdings saw intra-Asia cargo volumes climb 10 % to 15 % in the first half due to strong cargo demand and new services . The strong economic growth has also led to the deployment of more capacity and increased the number of services from China to key markets year over year , according to data prepared by MDS Transmodal for the Journal of Commerce .
Antonella Teodoro , senior consultant with MDS Transmodal , said scheduled quarterly capacity between China and Thailand grew 8 % to 2.6 million TEUs in the third quarter from 2.4 million TEUs in the year prior , with the number of services climbing to 60 from 57 .
Scheduled quarterly capacity between China and Vietnam has also risen to 6 million TEUs in the third quarter from 5.8 million TEUs a year earlier and 3.3 million TEUs in the third quarter of 2019 .
Peter Sand , chief analyst at online rate benchmarking platform Xeneta , said spot rates on some intra-Asian trades have slipped in August from record highs in July , but they remain elevated .
Sand said spot rates from Shanghai to Bangkok were
18 Journal of Commerce | September 23 , 2024 www . joc . com