Surface Transportation

Green shoots of US surface freight demand finally appearing

A 2.1 % August gain broke a 42-month decline in the Cass Freight Shipments Index. Shutterstock. com

By Bill Cassidy

After more than three years of declining volumes, some encouraging signs are emerging that while the long US freight downturn may not be over, it’ s nearing an end.

Overall US domestic freight volumes rose on an annual basis for the first time in 42 consecutive months in August, according to the latest data from Cass Information Systems, and two of the largest US LTL carriers reported yearover-year growth in daily shipment volumes.

The Cass Freight Shipment Index, a measure of total trucking and intermodal rail volumes, increased 2.1 % from a year earlier in August, the first year-over-year increase since January 2023, and 5.6 % on a sequential basis.

Based on historical data, a normal seasonal trend would push volumes up 1 % year over year in September, according to Cass. Last year, the shipments index dropped 5.4 % in September after a 9.3 % decline in August.

According to a preliminary operating data update, XPO, the fourth-largest US LTL carrier ranked by revenue, increased its average daily shipment count 5.7 % year over year in August. That compares with a 2.8 % increase in shipments in the second quarter.

In a similar update, sixth-ranked Saia said its shipments per day jumped 1.1 % from a year earlier in August, while LTL weight per shipment rose 7.5 %, pushing up LTL tonnage per day 8.7 %. Saia’ s average daily shipments rose 4.4 % in the second quarter.

August is typically a slower month for freight demand, which accounts for some of the improvement in Saia’ s performance. A year ago, Saia saw LTL shipments drop 2.2 % on an annualized basis in August, while weight per shipment increased 0.1 %.

What’ s more, steady air freight demand and elevated US imports from Asia are likely to generate additional shipments on US highways and rails as the pre-holiday season kicks in.

‘ Fits and starts’

However, one month does not necessarily make a recovery, especially after a prolonged downturn.

“ As this roughly offsets the declines in the past few months, we hesitate to describe this as a major improvement in freight demand,” Cass said in its August index report. However, the freight audit and payment firm said the uptick signals“ the bottom is probably in.”

Improvements in US freight demand in recent months have been called“ incremental” outside specific sectors such

as data center and energy-related construction. Trucking companies have referred to underlying demand as“ steady.”

Keith Prather, managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, said the US freight market remains volatile, with mixed signals across sectors.

“ A lot of purchasing managers aren’ t sure what to do,” he told the Journal of Commerce in early September.“ This ties back to unavailable products and supply chain challenges. We’ re getting freight in fits and starts.”

That could benefit LTL carriers, Prather said, because more shippers move smaller shipments faster to prevent stock-outs and keep production lines running without costly inventories.

The US Shipper Inventory Sentiment Index from BlueGrace Logistics is more muted for the fourth quarter, with 55 % of shippers expressing neutral expectations for their stockpiles.

“ You’ ve got some purchasing managers saying let’ s use fast-cycle logistics and smaller shipments to fill stockouts,” Prather said.“ That strategy is being replicated across a number of sectors and that’ s helping to feed the LTL business.”

email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com

50 Journal of Commerce | October 5, 2026 www. joc. com