Container Shipping Quarterly

Special Report

COMMENTARY

By Michael Britton

Fleet capacity and available capacity are not the same thing.

Container shipping appears to be approaching a contradiction.

The global fleet is expanding, with significant new vessel capacity scheduled to enter the market. At the same time, individual trade lanes can still experience tight capacity, disruption and sudden freight-rate increases.

Both conditions can be true; fleet capacity and available capacity are not the same thing. Supply and demand remain fundamental to container shipping, but counting ships and forecasting cargo volumes do not, on their own, provide a complete picture of the market. Global container trade grew 7.5 % in 2024 and a further 5.2 % in 2025, and it is expected to grow again in 2026.

Over the last three years, container trade has expanded nearly 20 %, significantly outpacing global economic growth. As demand continues to rise, the amount of capacity available to customers increasingly depends on how effectively vessels, containers, ports, terminals and inland networks can move cargo.

Demand itself has become more dynamic. Inventory drawdowns and replenishment cycles can influence when cargo moves and how quickly demand materializes across individual trade lanes, adding another layer of complexity to traditional supply-demand calculations.

Recent analysis from Sea-Intelligence illustrates the practical impact of this distinction. The firm estimates vessel delays are currently absorbing around 5 % of global deep-sea container capacity, about 1.7 million TEUs. Between 2011 and 2019, delays absorbed an average of 2.2 % of capacity. That capacity still exists within the fleet, but delays reduce how productively it can be deployed across the network.

Longer vessel routings have a similar effect. When disruption requires a ship to take a longer route, every round trip requires more time. This absorbs capacity without removing a single vessel from the global fleet.

The effects can then spread through connected services. Late vessel arrivals affect berth windows, terminal operations, equipment positioning and onward transportation. A disruption that begins at sea can therefore place pressure on the entire cargo journey.

The industry also needs to look beyond the ocean leg. Ports, terminals, rail networks, roads, warehousing capacity and equipment availability all influence how much vessel capacity can be used in practice. Adding ships may increase nominal supply, but it does not resolve congestion at ports and inland nodes.

This matters as cargo volumes grow. Drewry reported that global port throughput increased 6.5 % year over year to 994 million TEUs in 2025. In markets where ports and inland corridors are already operating close to their practical limits, even relatively modest disruption can quickly affect cargo flows and effective capacity.

The composition and geography of trade are also evolving. Sourcing diversification is reshaping cargo flows across Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Eastern Europe, Mexico and other markets, while investment in areas such as electrification, energy infrastructure and data centers is contributing to additional movements of equipment, components and materials across some trade corridors.

These emerging flows can place new demands on infrastructure that may already be handling substantial consumer-goods volumes. While cargo patterns can shift over time, expanding port, terminal, rail and inland capacity often takes years.

The result is that changes in where and what the world trades can create capacity pressure even when global vessel supply is increasing.

None of this means that the traditional economics of supply and demand have stopped working. Nor does it eliminate the risk that excess vessel deliveries will place downward pressure on rates. It means the industry needs a broader definition of available supply.

Fleet size remains a critical indicator, but it should be assessed alongside vessel delays, routing length, port congestion, equipment positioning and inland capacity. The same global supply-demand balance can produce very different outcomes across individual trade lanes. Customers and carriers should therefore be cautious about treating global fleet growth as a direct measure of the capacity available in a specific corridor.

The next phase of container shipping will be shaped not only by how many ships the industry adds, but by how effectively the wider network can put that capacity to work. More vessels can increase nominal supply, but available capacity ultimately depends on the performance of the entire network— at sea, in port and inland.

The equation is still rooted in supply and demand. Increasingly, however, network performance determines how that equation plays out across individual trade lanes.

Michael Britton is head of North America market, ocean at Maersk.

20 Journal of Commerce | October 5, 2026 www. joc. com