Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report
An estimated 213,000 TEUs of Asia – Europe capacity is moving through the Suez Canal( pictured) per week. Shutterstock. com demand growth measured in TEU miles was maintained at the average of 6.6 % seen in the past 12 months, Murphy said demand will contract by 8.7 % year over year in the first half of 2027.
“ At the top of every market cycle, we always hear arguments from carriers as to why the order book is not a problem, how they have become more disciplined [ and ] they will not allow rates to go below cost,” he said.“ How— this is the new pitch— port congestion will be permanent, how this time is different. Yet, in every previous cycle for decades, it was never different.”
Ocean carrier and ship owner association BIMCO likewise characterized a resumption of Red Sea routings at scale as a“ key risk” to effective vessel demand.
“ If this continues and routings gradually return to normal during 2027, we estimate that ship demand growth in 2027 could end 5 percentage points lower than forecast,” the group said in a September container market analysis.“ Once all ships have returned to normal Suez Canal routings, ship demand could be 10 % lower than if Cape of Good Hope routings were still preferred.”
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
current round of import frontloading began in late spring, Michael Kroul, chief executive of Minnesota-based broker KTI, told the Journal of Commerce. Across the port and inland markets KTI serves, Kroul said spot intermodal rates have risen 15 % to 20 % since the start of summer, while shippers are also covering higher diesel costs.
Average diesel prices reached $ 6.29 per gallon in the week of Sept. 14, the highest level ever recorded and up 65 % since the start of the Iran war in late February, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
Chassis availability at some port and inland markets has also become an issue for shippers due to longer street dwells for import containers and out-of-service chassis. Shippers are looking for motor carriers that have their own equipment to avoid delays, Kroul said.
“ We are not in a race to the bottom for pricing right now,” he said.“ Fuel is pushing this total cost up.
“ The market became accustomed to easy access to chassis, but this supply has tightened, forcing many shippers to rely on brokers or carriers with access to private chassis,” Kroul added.
Ben Banks, president of Georgia-based motor carrier TCW, told the Journal of Commerce a tighter overall trucking market is also hitting drayage. He has had to increase driver wages by 5 % through August, the first such raise in three years, with more raises likely later this year. The Intermodal Association of North America( IANA) said there are 15,000 fewer drivers than there were in December 2025.
“ The market is tightening, but it’ s not at crisis stage,” Banks said.“ Trucks are rolling five days a week.”
Fuel prices have also played a role in which containers truckers are accepting because“ container lines do not
www. joc. com regularly update their fuel surcharges” for truckers, Banks said. He is only familiar with one ocean carrier that has started accepting weekly fuel surcharges since March.
Flawed safety system
Jason Hilsenbeck, president of online carrier platform Drayage. com, told the Journal of Commerce that searches from ocean carriers, forwarders and cargo owners for port trucking across Southeast and Gulf Coast markets have been on the rise since June.
Shippers seem to be more selective about their carriers now, Hilsenbeck said, which is also fueling the search for capacity. This stems from the US Supreme Court’ s May
“ The market became accustomed to easy access to chassis, but this supply has tightened.”
decision that found brokers could be held liable for accidents involving the truckers to whom they tender freight.
Hilsenbeck said the ruling’ s citing of“ ordinary care” for selecting a motor carrier is now extending to other shippers who may contract directly for drayage without a broker. He said at least two shippers have told him they are searching for new truckers to replace an agent-based drayage carrier that leases trucks because the carrier no longer meets their new safety thresholds.
A report on the carrier’ s seven Federal Motor Carrier
October 5, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 13