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The IMO ’ s 5 % zero-emission fuels by 2030 target is critical to long-term decarbonization goals . Shutterstock . com

Shipping needs ‘ serious wake-up call ’ as 2030 emissions targets slip : report

By Greg Knowler

The decarbonization of global shipping is moving too slowly to meet even the 5 % zero-emission fuel target by 2030 , a critical benchmark on the road toward 2050 netzero goals , according to a recent report from maritime industry groups .

The next 12 months are critical to avoid shipping falling irreparably behind its climate goals , according to the “ Progress Towards Shipping ’ s 2030 Breakthrough ” by the UCL Energy Institute , the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions and the Getting to Zero Coalition .

“ This report must act as a serious wake-up call to the industry to accelerate the transformation we need to see in the sector ,” Jesse Fahnestock , director of decarbonization at the Global Maritime Forum , said in a Sept . 24 statement .

“ Increasing the use of zero-emission fuels is at the heart of decarbonizing the shipping industry , but we are not seeing the progress required to meet our decarbonization goals ,” he added .

The third annual report warned that most actors across the maritime ecosystem “ change levers ” of supply , demand , policy , finance and civil society were moving too slowly to meet the internationally agreed 2030 target .

“ There is no time to waste , and we must see a big shift in momentum over the next 12 months to bring our 2030 targets within reach ,” Fahnestock said . “ With such long lead times to implement policy and finance and build vessels and energy supply chains , the window of opportunity is only open by a crack . But importantly , it is still open .”

Global shipping is responsible for approximately 3 % of the world ’ s greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions — more than the entire country of Germany — and with global trade predicted to quadruple by 2050 , emissions are set to skyrocket without urgent action .

The International Maritime Organization ( IMO ) set a goal of ensuring that zero- or near-zero emission fuels make up 5 % to 10 % of all shipping fuels by 2030 . The 5 % target is considered the critical mass at which the infrastructure , supply chains and technology that support zero-emission fuels mature and enable exponential growth .

If the 5 % target is not achieved , it could jeopardize the industry ’ s entire 2050 net-zero goal , the report found .

‘ Significant and immediate action ’

The report pointed out that current production of Scalable Zero-Emission Fuels ( SZEF ) would meet less than half of the required supply by 2030 . Current orders of zero-emission-capable vessels would only deliver around 25 % of required fuel demand by 2030 , and finance for zero-emission fuels has slowed while funding for fossilfueled vessels has accelerated .

“ The speed at which the shipping industry adopts hydrogen-derived fuels will shape the success and the cost of this transition for decades to come ,” said Domagoi Baresic , research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute .

“ Extensive adoption of such fuels by 2030 remains within reach but will require significant and immediate action by policymakers , fuel suppliers and the shipping industry over the next 12 months ,” Baresic said in the statement . “ Without such action , the transition will be much longer , costlier and have a less positive environmental impact . All the ingredients for a rapid adoption already exist , but it is up to the relevant actors to make it a reality .”

“ We are not seeing the progress required to meet our decarbonization goals .”

Of the 35 actions required to deliver the 2030 breakthrough , the progress report found just eight that could be considered “ on track ,” while 13 were classed as “ off track ,” up from eight in last year ’ s edition of the report . The remaining 14 are only “ partially on track .”

However , the report also stressed that meeting the 2030 goal was still achievable , pointing to strong progress on actions within the key “ system change levers ” of policy and supply as examples of success , with hopes that a strong midterm GHG pricing mechanism from the IMO and the fast delivery of announced production projects would put both levers back on track .

email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com www . joc . com October 7 , 2024 | Journal of Commerce 23