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Shipping experts warn of‘ disaster’ if IMO emissions framework voted down

The US has threatened to impose tariffs and port duties on IMO members supporting the net-zero framework. Shutterstock. com

By Greg Knowler and Carly Fields

Failure to adopt the International Maritime Organization’ s( IMO) net-zero emissions framework in October will undermine years of complex negotiations and erase the certainty investors and energy suppliers need to decarbonize the maritime industry, according to shipping experts.

The warning follows Washington’ s increasingly aggressive attempts to derail adoption of the proposed net-zero framework at a pivotal meeting of the IMO’ s Marine Environment Protection Committee( MEPC) in London from Oct. 14-17. US officials in early September threatened IMO members supporting the framework with tariffs, port duties and even visa restrictions.

“ If the measure does not go through, it will be a pure disaster,” Patrick Verhoeven, managing director of the International Association of Ports and Harbors( IAPH), told a conference during the Sept. 15 – 19 London International Shipping Week( LISW).

“ If the measure does not go through, it will be a pure disaster.”

Although he remains“ cautiously optimistic,” Verhoeven said if voted down, the fuel standard and economic pricing measures in the framework would have to go back to the drawing board, exacerbating the uncertainty that already hangs over industry decarbonization and significantly delaying the process.

“ What we will see is probably an increase of more regional measures or those from individual countries. This will result in a complex regulatory patchwork which will be extremely challenging for ship owners and operators to comply with,” he said.

Matt Dunlop, strategic partner at the Maersk Mckinney-Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping, said the concept of the net-zero framework was crucial for the industry to realize its 2050 ambitions.

“ We need to get shipowners to continue to invest in LNG and methanol newbuilds while we get the standards ready for ammonia,” Dunlop told delegates at LISW.“ At the moment, there’ s no incentive for us, and the challenge for my customers is to understand‘ what do I need to do to

comply?’ It’ s more of a compliance discussion rather than a decarbonization discussion.

“ We have a real opportunity at MEPC, but if [ the netzero framework ] is not adopted... wow,” he added.

Direction of travel set

Martin Crawford-Brunt, CEO of specialist consultancy Lookout Marine, said shipping was on a pathway towards carbon neutrality, something that would not change even if the net-zero framework was voted down.

“ There’ s a lot of speculation about what’ s going to happen at MEPC, and a lot of the actors are keeping their cards close to the chest, but regardless of how it turns out, the imperative to do something will not go away,” he said.

Global shipping accounts for around 3 % of the world’ s greenhouse gas emissions, and the IMO deal is regarded as crucial in enabling the industry to reach climate neutrality around 2050 by introducing fuel standards and levies on ships that fail to meet strict targets.

The framework will require a two-thirds majority from member states to win approval and those voting yes will need to represent at least 50 % of the world’ s registered tonnage. Flag states Liberia, Panama and the Marshall Islands are home to almost half the world’ s gross tonnage.

Leading the diplomatic efforts to have the net-zero framework adopted in the face of pushback from Washington is IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, who struck a positive tone at LISW.

“ I remain very confident that this will happen [ at the October MEPC meeting ],” he told the IMO’ s headline conference at the event, noting the lengthy and complex process that has led to this crucial point in shipping’ s decarbonization journey.

“ We evaluated and assessed 20 different scenarios from the proposals that we had on the table before landing on the compromise approach that we have for adoption,” Dominguez said, reassuring stakeholders that the framework includes review clauses and additional assessments that would address potential disadvantages to specific sectors.

26 Journal of Commerce | October 6, 2025 www. joc. com