Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report
Vessels with more than 15,200 TEUs of capacity comprise 67 % of the 1 million TEUs set to hit the water in Q4. ambient _ pix / Shutterstock. com
Into the valley
Early peak, new vessels could tip Asia-Europe into overcapacity
By Greg Knowler
Asia-Europe ocean carriers face a moving target in their attempts to match rising capacity with softening demand due to a slew of new vessels entering the trade lane and ongoing port congestion dragging schedule reliability to dismal levels.
Despite reports of full ships from carriers, the frontloading that led to an early peak season on the Asia- Europe trade is expected to curb demand through the last quarter, with blank sailings announcements picking up ahead of China’ s National Day Golden Week holiday that began on Oct. 1.
“ The Asia – Europe trade lane saw peak season earlier this year, with the usual September surge already past,”
www. joc. com
C. H. Robinson noted in a September market update.“ This shift in timing patterns means that September through December will likely see below-normal shipping volumes compared to historical trends.”
The weakening volume will coincide with the delivery of more than 1 million TEUs in capacity that are scheduled to enter service before the end of the year. Importantly, 67 % of the new vessels will have a capacity of more than 15,200 TEUs, according to Alphaliner, which means most will necessarily be deployed on the already oversupplied Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said Asia – North Europe rates are showing structural weakness.
“ This could imply an increasing overcapacity of ultralarge container vessels, which to a large degree have no other relevant deployment focus than the Asia – Europe trade,” he explained in the firm’ s Sunday Spotlight newsletter.“ As such, this is problematic going forward, as we will see ever more of these vessels delivered.”
Fewer blank sailings
The carriers, for their part, are managing capacity by blanking sailings, but not at the same level as last year, said
October 6, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 21