Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report
second quarter and strong bookings through July will ensure third-quarter earnings are close to those recorded in the second quarter, the shipping companies are expecting a fourth-quarter decline and thus are intensifying cost-reduction efforts across their networks to mitigate any supply-demand shortfall.
Steady rise in capacity
Global demand has been resilient year to date, but in a market update on Aug. 26, J. P. Morgan pointed to softening trends in the second half. The bank highlighted overall
Container carrier operating costs have risen considerably since the COVID-19 pandemic. Mariusz Bugno / Shutterstock. com first-half ocean volume growth of 4.5 % year over year, while real global GDP grew 3 % in the same period.
“ We expect market growth to slow in the second half and forecast 1.8 % in Q3 and flat in Q4 [-0.3 %],” the bank noted.“ For 2026 onwards, we estimate volume growth of 2 % per annum, broadly in line with J. P. Morgan economists’ real GDP growth forecasts, as we expect the trade multiplier to hold at 1x.”
J. P. Morgan is expecting the rate erosion to accelerate over the next two years as demand slows and capacity grows, pushing the industry into deep losses.
Trans-Pacific spot rates slip to 26-month low in September
Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU
USD per FEU
$ 11,954 $ 10,000
$ 8,000
$ $ 10,000 6,000
$ 4,000
$ 2,000
$ 0
Source: Platts, S & P Global
www. joc. com
L Jul Jan 2024 Jul
Jan 2025
North Asia to US East Coast North Asia to US West Coast
Sep Jul, 2025
© 2025 S & P Global
“ All these elements of additional cost have found their way into our cost structure.”
“ We expect a widening demand-supply imbalance into H2 25, driven by slower demand growth into the end of the year and estimated effective supply growth of 6.5 % year over year,” the bank noted. A return of sailings to the Red Sea in 2026 will drive 9 % supply growth, but even if the route remains closed, supply will still grow 3 % to 5 %, the market update predicted.
Spot rates are certainly feeling the effects of weakening demand and excess capacity. Average Asia – US West Coast pricing fell to $ 1,400 per FEU in the week of Sept. 22, the lowest weekly reading since July 2023, after reaching a
October 6, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 17