Surface Transportation
Bingham warned , however , that trucking demand won ’ t see significant growth from the industrial and manufacturing sector if consumer spending falters . “ Widespread , you don ’ t see investments ” by manufacturers , he said .
Experts expect freight demand and rates to rise in 2025 , but not before the second quarter . Shutterstock . com
“ Warehousing has pulled back , and in some respects , it ’ s payback from COVID ,” when demand for warehousing space skyrocketed ,” he added . “ It ’ s going to take a while for it to come back .”
Klaskow said LTL pricing remains strong , but tonnage growth comparisons are becoming more challenging following the July anniversary of Yellow ’ s bankruptcy and subsequent collapse , the effects of which are still reverberating throughout the LTL sector .
International shipments have been the growth engine for intermodal rail volumes thanks to strong growth in US imports , while domestic intermodal has been stuck in neutral , said Larry Gross , president of Gross Transportation Consulting and a Journal of Commerce analyst .
“ There ’ s a lot of truck capacity still out there and low trucking rates with no incentive to shift to domestic intermodal ,” Gross told the audience .
Gross said domestic intermodal will have to take the baton from international in 2025 due to expected lower import volumes . To do so , domestic intermodal will need to “ step up ” and become more competitive , he said .
email : cathy . morrowroberso @ spglobal . com email : bill . cassidy @ spglobal . com
spot rates in Truckstop . com ’ s system rose 0.3 % from the previous week but were still down 4.8 % year over year at $ 2.19 per mile , including fuel surcharges .
That points to a slow start to an upcycle , Tucker said , although others expect a faster pace .
“ About half our brokerage customers believe spot rates are going to come back in the next five to six months ,” Tucker said . “ At the same time , they say that 2024 is a tougher year than 2023 and they expect margins to continue to compress through the first quarter .”
Extended forecasts
A shift in market conditions that sends truckload spot rates upward has been forecast repeatedly over the past two years , and that forecast has slipped from early 2024 to early 2025 .
“ We ’ ve been predicting an inflection within three months for twelve months now ,” said Adam Miller , CEO of Knight- Swift Transportation Holdings . “ It feels like we ’ re getting closer to a balance ” between supply and demand .
“ In the second quarter , we saw some surge demand , with customers looking to lock up capacity for a certain time ,” Miller said . “ We hadn ’ t seen that since 2021 .”
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STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP MANAGEMENT AND |
CIRCULATION ( Required by 39 U . S . C . 3685 ) |
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Title of publication : Journal of Commerce . |
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Publication No .: 1530-7557 . |
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Date of filing : September 23 , 2024 |
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Frequency of issue : Bi-Weekly . |
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Location of the headquarters or general |
business office is : 55 WATER ST FL 39 , NEW YORK NY , 10041-3207 |
12 . Extent and Nature of Circulation
Average No . Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 months
Actual Number of Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date
9 / 9 / 2024
A . Total No . copies printed |
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( Net Press Run ) |
6743 |
6416 |
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B . Paid and / or requested circulation
1 . Sales through dealers and carriers , street vendors and counter sales
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354 |
403 |
2 . Mail subscriptions 3397 2970
C . Total paid and / or requested circulation |
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( Sum of B1 and B2 ) |
3751 |
3373 |
� . �otal �ree distribution by mail , carrier |
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or other means ; samples , complimentary |
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, and other free copies |
2951 |
3002 |
� . Total distribution ( Sum of C and � ) 6702 6375
� . �opies not distributed � . ���ice use , le�t�over , unaccounted , spoiled a�ter printin�
41 41
� . Total ( Sum of � & � – should |
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equal net press run shown in A ) |
6743 |
6416 |
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October 21 , 2024 | Journal of Commerce 41