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US retailers expect modest import bump in October to close out peak season

NRF expects US imports to rise 3.1 % in October , 0.9 % in November and 0.2 % in December . Robert V Schwemmer / Shutterstock . com

By Bill Mongelluzzo

US retailers are forecasting a modest year-over-year increase in imports this month to close out the 2024 peak shipping season , with most of the holiday merchandise already having entered the country due to the frontloading of imports from Asia this summer .

Furthermore , the brief three-day strike by the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) on the East and Gulf coasts is not expected to disrupt supply chains ahead of the traditional holiday shopping season , the National Retail Federation ( NRF ) said Oct . 8 .

“ It was a huge relief for retailers , their customers and the nation ’ s economy that the strike was short-lived ,” Jonathan Gold , vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the NRF , said in the latest Global Port Tracker ( GPT ) report . “ It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover , but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand , and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected .” The GPT report is published monthly by the NRF and consulting firm Hackett Associates .

The NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales , excluding automobile dealers , gasoline stations and restaurants , will grow between 2.5 % and 3.5 % over 2023 .

The latest GPT forecasts that US imports in October will be up 3.1 % from October 2023 . That is higher than the 1.3 % increase it forecast in last month ’ s report .

November imports are now expected to be up 0.9 % year over year , down from the previous forecast of a 1.6 % increase , while imports in December are projected to be up 0.2 %, compared with the previous forecast of a 1.6 % increase from December 2023 .

Action shifts west

August saw the highest volume of US imports since the record set in May 2022 due to the frontloading of imports this summer . West Coast ports are expected to outperform East and Gulf coast ports in October as retailers ship their time-sensitive holiday merchandise in time for the Black Friday sales after Thanksgiving .

“ The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers , retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf coast port strike , rather than a sudden increase in demand ,” Ben Hackett , founder of Hackett Associates , wrote in the GPT report .

“ It was a huge relief for retailers , their customers and the nation ’ s economy .”

“ We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast , but nothing significant , and East Coast delays should be limited ,” Hackett added .

GPT forecasts total imports will rise 12.1 % in 2024 . Imports in January , meanwhile , are projected to increase 0.8 % from January 2024 , compared with a previous forecast of a 0.3 % decrease . In its first forecast for February , GPT said imports will fall 11.2 % year over year as many factories in Asia will be closed for a week or two for the 2025 Lunar New Year holidays that begin on Jan . 29 .

email : bill . mongelluzzo @ spglobal . com

US imports from Asia grow for 11th straight month in August

Containerized US imports from Asia , in laden TEUs , with year-over-year change

TEU volume

1,400,000 1,200,000

1,000,000

1,000,000 800,000

600,000 400,000 200,000

Source : S & P Global

0 L Oct Jan 2023 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2024 , Apr

TEU Year-over-year % change

Jul

30 % 20 %

10 % 100 % 0 %

-10 % -20 % -30 % -40 %

Year-over-year % change

© 2024 S & P Global

16 Journal of Commerce | October 21 , 2024 www . joc . com