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Executive Editor: Mark Szakonyi 202.872.1234, mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com
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Fourth Quarter Trucking Report: Analyzing the Peak Season
On demand, Free
Trucking’ s“ peak” season traditionally ran from Labor Day through Thanksgiving, when holiday goods needed to be in stores for Black Friday sales. That schedule has been upended and extended over the past decade by e-commerce and now by fluctuations in freight scheduling caused by US tariffs. The peak now may run beyond the holidays and into January, though the extended shipping season is sometimes less“ peaky.” The fourth quarter for trucking this year looks more like a bump in the road than a peak, with excess capacity and weak demand for both truckload and less-than-truckload( LTL) service. But what are the chances for a“ November surprise”? Will consumers prove resilient in the face of economic uncertainty and increase their spending, or will they cut back? How much of an increase in demand is needed to shrink retail inventories to the point of replenishment? Are factories using up raw materials at a pace that could spark higher demand for inputs? On the supply side, will tighter enforcement of truck driver licensing laws finally reduce excess capacity and lead to spot market rate hikes in late 2025 or early 2026? Are there signs in this year’ s trucking peak of a market inflection in 2026? http:// bit. ly / 3KXTrON
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Importers see major uptick in CBP requests for shipment information
US Customs and Border Protection( CBP) is ratcheting up scrutiny on importers through an uptick in queries about specific shipments, Eugene Laney, the president and CEO of the American Association of Exporters and Importers( AAEI), told the Virginia Maritime Association’ s International Trade Symposium. http:// bit. ly / 4qkY99m
European Shipping and Trade Outlook: The Trans-Atlantic
On demand, Free
The 15 % baseline tariff on EU exports to the US agreed upon in July between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen should finally bring clarity to shippers on both sides of the Atlantic. The traditionally stable trade between Europe and the US has faced volatility in rates and demand for much of this year during increasingly fractious negotiations that saw threats of 30 % tariffs from Trump and Brussels preparing to launch its own wide-ranging retaliatory measures. Carmakers in Europe were hammered financially in the first half, halting US sales of some models that were not commercially viable at the tariff levels. Under the new trade agreement, car exports to the US that were taxed at 27.5 % will see tariffs reduced to 15 %, while US exports of cars to Europe will be duty-free. Tariffs on EU steel and aluminum and related products remain at 50 %. The EU appears to have come off second best in what is being described by analysts as an“ asymmetrical deal,” but at least it has averted a destructive trans-Atlantic trade war and allows shippers to get back to business. https:// bit. ly / 4nCNk0R
Resources Top 100 US Importers and Exporters https:// bit. ly / 3ZvpUQG
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Truckers call for tougher licensing, better training amid crackdown
A crackdown on unqualified and illegal truck drivers in the US is already said to be tightening capacity in certain markets, but some want the government to go further, with the Owner-Operator Independent Driver’ s Association( OOIDA) urging Congress to write new truck driver licensing rules into law. http:// bit. ly / 3WD5pA1
Managing Editor: Benjamin Meyer 916.716.6272, benjamin. meyer @ spglobal. com
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Senior Editors: William B. Cassidy Trucking and Domestic Transportation 202.872.1228, bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com
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Journal of Commerce( USPS 279 – 060), ISSN 1530-7557, November 3, 2025, Volume 26, Issue No. 11. Journal of Commerce is published monthly( 12 issues a year) by JOC Group Inc., 55 Water St., 39th Floor, New York, N. Y. 10041. Subscription price: $ 595 a year. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N. Y., and additional mailing offices. © All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be copied or reprinted without written permission from the publisher. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to Journal of Commerce, Subscription Services Department, 55 Water St., 39th Floor, New York, N. Y. 10041.
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