Rising to the occasion

US truckload pricing inches higher as trucking’ s peak beckons

By William B. Cassidy

Freight imbalances and changes in capacity in certain lanes are tightening US truckload supply, but not by much. Lower import volumes and a crackdown on illegal drivers have combined with seasonal peak demand to push spot rates higher in some lanes, but most measures of dry-van truckload spot pricing have changed little since August.

Transactional truckload pricing is rising but“ it’ s not a paradigm shift by any means,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics.

“ It’ s still a soft market, but we’ ve seen cancellations increase and rates per mile nudge up,” Brashier said.“ Is this something that changes the market post-peak? That’ s still to be determined.”

“ It’ s still a soft market, but we’ ve seen cancellations increase and rates per mile nudge up.”

Over the course of 2025, several events, including the Fourth of July holiday and nationwide roadside truck and driver inspections, have led to short-term surges in spot truckload pricing, but rates have fallen back after those events. There’ s no clear evidence of either a demand catalyst or a supply chokepoint that would change that pattern. Truckload rates typically increase during the fourthquarter peak. Last year, the DAT Freight & Analytics average US dry-van rate rose from $ 1.61 per mile on Sept. 15 to $ 1.84 per mile on Jan. 5, 2025, before dropping back to $ 1.60 per mile by April 13. Indications are that spot rates are on a similar seasonal trajectory this year.

The US average dry-van linehaul rate for the week ending Oct. 11 was $ 1.70 per mile, flat with the previous week and up 6 cents from a year ago, according to DAT. Dry-van rates at Truckstop. com were more volatile, with the US average falling more than 4 cents to $ 1.93 per mile after rising nearly 7 cents the previous week.

Other factors moving market

The fact that truckload rates are inching upward despite weak demand suggests other factors are inflating rates, said DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo.

“ Freight imbalances and changes in available capacity drove rates higher in certain markets, as opposed to volumes,” Adamo said in a statement. Lower import volumes may be part of the mix.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measure of pricing, rose 1.7 % in September from August and 2.6 % from a year earlier. The index is down 1 % from two years ago, however. The US long-distance truckload producer price index in August was nearly flat year over year. The September report has been delayed by the US government shutdown.

Shippers contacted by the Journal of Commerce expect contract rates for 2025 to range from flat to higher by low single-digit percentages year over year. Similar to most analysts, they see little that would shift freight demand and truckload pricing into higher gear. Within trucking, there is continuous debate over what might be the next supply shock.

Predictions that the exit of thousands of small trucking firms would tighten capacity and flip the market have fallen flat. In 2025, more transportation analysts and trucking executives have talked about a developing“ equilibrium” in the truckload market, a balance between supply and demand that could be upset by relatively small changes.“ We’ re setting up for increased vulnerability in the market next year,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence for Arrive Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce.“ It’ s really next year when we start to see other forces [ beyond seasonality ] begin to have an impact,” he added, referring in part to a crackdown on drivers in the US illegally.

ELP enforcement impact

That crackdown on non-English-speaking truck drivers and those working in the US illegally with nondomiciled commercial driver’ s licenses( CDLs) is highlighted by nearly every analyst or executive speaking on the outlook for the trucking market. However, the impact of that crackdown, which began in June, on the overall market has been negligible.

US truckload spot rates inch higher as peak season approaches

Average US truckload spot rates, in USD per mile, excluding fuel surcharges

USD average rate per mile

$ 3

$ 2.5

$ 1.0 2.0

$ 1.5

$ 1.0

L Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025 Jul Sep, 2025

Source: DAT Solutions

Dry Van Flatbed Refrigerated

40 Journal of Commerce | November 3, 2025 www. joc. com

November 3, 2025 | Page 40

Rising to the occasion