Air cargo and the US-China 90-day tariff truce set to expire in November, demand patterns remained highly uncertain, with tactical redeployments of freighter aircraft continuing to shape capacity.

TIACA’ s Hughes said the shifting of air freight capacity will not be limited to e-commerce developments as the uncertainties around doing business with the US spill over into other sectors.

“ We’ re going to see other industries saying the potential volatility of moving freight to the US market could be too fractured or too risky where all of a sudden your cargo, whether it goes by air or ocean, could be hit with a 25 %, 40 %, 50 % tariff, which makes it uneconomic and too risky to produce and send,” Hughes told the Xeneta webinar.

Cargo Facts Consulting noted in its update that global trade momentum was positive, but the composition has shifted with e-commerce and time-sensitive components gaining market share of air cargo, while discretionary consumer electronics tied to China-US flows have remained under pressure.

“ The policy backdrop is prompting strategies that prioritize flexibility, additional entry points and country-of-origin diversification,” Cargo Facts said.

In its fourth-quarter outlook, the consultancy expects continued volatility into the peak season as the US removal of the de minimis exemption collides with reduced winter airline schedules and incremental net freighter growth.

“ More areas of production and more areas of increasing consumption is really good for air cargo.”

“ Asia – Europe should remain the relative outperformer, supported by e-commerce, postal-parcel rerouting and alternative sourcing from North and Southeast Asia,” the Cargo Facts outlook noted.“ Trans-Pacific strength will depend on how quickly platforms and consolidators adapt labeling, screening and routing to the new US requirements.”

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

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