International Maritime

Geopolitics, weather delays undermine China-Europe rail viability

By Greg Knowler

The threat of getting caught in the crossfire of the Russia- Ukraine war and infrastructure- and weather-related concerns on the southern route are keeping European importers from China off the tracks of the overland route.

Lengthy disruptions have delayed cargo on both the northern corridor and middle corridor rail networks over the past year, forcing Europe-based shippers of high-value and time-sensitive goods to reassess their continued usage of the overland route.

“ The current geopolitical situation makes it difficult to consider shipping by train through Russia as a stable and reliable option,” said David Smrkovsky, global head of logistics procurement at Czech Republic-based automotive manufacturer Kostal Group.

“ Geopolitics influences shipping routes between Asia and Europe now more than ever.”

“ Geopolitics influences shipping routes between Asia and Europe now more than ever. One can suddenly get weeks of delays, and you can quickly face production shutdowns because nobody can factor in a buffer of four- or five-weeks delay in the supply planning,” he added.

Westbound rail traffic from China to Europe in the first half fell 27.4 % year over year to 118,291 TEUs, with 93.4 % of the volume entering Europe via Poland, according to Upply. The supply chain visibility provider noted in a market update September that shippers switching to rail as a substitute for ocean during the Red Sea disruption in the first half of 2024 had“ most likely” returned to maritime transport, where rates are more competitive.

Rates from Chinese terminals to European terminals have been near $ 3,000 per FEU for most of the year, according to the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index( ERAI). Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce, pegged average Asia – North Europe ocean rates at $ 1,800 per FEU in mid-October.

Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, slammed the brakes on the China – Europe rail network where volume had expanded by almost 30 % in 2021 to a record

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1.46 million TEUs. More than 90 % of the rail freight between China and Europe was transported via Russia and its ally Belarus, but in the days following the invasion, global forwarders announced a stop on handling rail freight traveling through those countries, in addition to their suspension of all cargo bookings to and from Russia and Belarus.

While most western forwarders eschewed the Russia-transiting route over moral issues, Chinese forwarders had no such qualms and continued to provide overland services to Europe, although much of the volume on the rail network is also related to China-Russia trade.

Impossible to plan

In the last two years, many of the global forwarders have returned to the trade lane that remains the fastest option for moving containers from China to Europe— at least, until unplanned border closures related to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and western sanctions on Moscow, bring rail trade to a standstill.

On Sept. 12, the border between Poland and Belarus was closed for two weeks after Russian drones entered Polish airspace during war games in neighboring Belarus. Closing the main Małaszewicze border crossing between Poland and Belarus impacted thousands of trucks and 300 trains that were in transit on the northern corridor. Even though the border was reopened on Sept. 25, some of the bottlenecks are still being cleared.

Forwarders contacted by the Journal of Commerce declined to comment publicly on the volatile political situation, but an executive at a global logistics provider who asked not to be identified said Russia would continue to test EU neighbors with related border closures likely to become more common and impossible to plan for.

“ The full potential of the northern corridor will only be realized once the Ukraine conflict is fully resolved,” the forwarder said, adding that the middle corridor as a China-Europe option was“ too long and too unpredictable.”

Hellmann Worldwide Logistics had containers impacted by the Poland-Belarus border closure, but the Hamburg-based forwarder managed to find a way to mitigate the delays.

“ Luckily, we found solutions, and we have a few

November 3, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 17