Cover Story ambient _ pix / Shutterstock. com orders in the first 10 months of 2024. And for larger ships with at least 8,000 TEUs of capacity, 81 % of the vessels on order are for LNG and methanol-capable ships, Bimco said in its report.
That means more than 25 % of the container fleet in operation by 2030 could be capable of sailing on alternative fuels, Rasmussen said.
“ Assuming that none of the alternatively fueled ships in operation are recycled, the container fleet in 2030 will include 837 alternatively fueled ships with 10.9 million TEUs of capacity once all the ships in the order book have been delivered,” he said.
Significant shortfall
Rasmussen and Alphaliner both attributed a decline in methanol-powered ship orders in favor of LNG primarily to the persistent lack of availability of alternative fuels. LNG is currently available mainly as a carbon fuel but could increasingly become available as a low-carbon biofuel or e-fuel.
“ Reiterating concerns over fuel availability, Maersk and CMA CGM last week publicly stated they are struggling to secure sufficient affordable
methanol for their ships, ensuring many will continue to run on conventional fuel,” Alphaliner wrote in a mid-October newsletter.
Those concerns emerged as a key theme at London International Shipping Week( LISW), where stakeholders consistently spoke of the urgent need for investment in alternative fuel production to scale up supply and for an increase in demand for dual-fuel ships.
The International Maritime Organization’ s net-zero framework, adoption of which was delayed for at least a year in October, has set a target of zero- or near-zero emission fuel types making up 5 % to 10 % of shipping fuel by 2030.
But current estimates predict a significant shortfall. Unless demand for alternative fuel vessels significantly ramps up, the current order book for these ships will only deliver about 37 % of the demand needed to achieve the 2030 target, according to a research report released at LISW called Progress Towards Shipping’ s 2030 breakthrough— 2025 edition.
The report was compiled jointly by the London-based UCL Energy Institute, the Global Maritime Forum’ s Getting to Zero Coalition and the Climate High- Level Champions.
In another report released at LISW, Accelerating to Net Zero, consultants at Accelleron noted that dual-fuel ships dominate the order books, but scalable carbon-neutral fuels are not available while emissions continue to rise.
“ The proliferation of fuel pathways has created paralysis,” the report said, highlighting how fuel pathway uncertainty was fragmenting demand and diluting investment in scalable net-zero solutions.
“ LNG, biofuels and e-fuels are all being trialed, but none at scale,” according to the report.“ Shipping, historically the first in line for the leftovers of the fossil economy, now faces the reverse: competing for premium fuels.”
Accelleron estimated that if LNG was the industry choice, 333 million tons of LNG would be required annually by 2050 to fully decarbonize global shipping, which would see a 67 % increase in fuel consumption by 2050 as maritime transport doubles.
Special Correspondent Keith Wallis contributed to this report.
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
14 Journal of Commerce | November 3, 2025 www. joc. com