Surface Transportation

That exposes a central tension. Carriers can argue that shippers pushed rates lower while trucking costs increased. Shippers can counter that carriers submitted many of those rates while competing for freight. A strategic partnership, therefore, does not require either side to ignore market economics.

Rob Haddock, supply chain advisor at DemandChain AI, said the shipper’ s responsibility also extends beyond its own loading dock.

A shipper may operate an efficient origin but send trucks to receivers where drivers face lengthy delays. Because the shipper owns the relationship with its customer, Haddock said, it has a responsibility to address those problems or recognize their cost. He suggested rating facilities for efficiency, with difficult locations carrying an additional cost, while drop-and-hook operations could justify better economics.

Rising volumes could exacerbate truckload capacity shortage

By William B. Cassidy

Signs are beginning to emerge that US freight demand, while not surging, is improving, and that improvement could add further fuel to what has thus far been a capacity- driven rate gain in the truckload market.

Total North American surface freight volumes— including truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal rail and parcel— increased year over year for the second consecutive month in September, according to the Cass Freight Shipments Index.

The shipments portion of the index rose 1.9 % year over year to 1.062, the highest since November 2024, after climbing 2.1 % in August, the first annualized increase in the index since January 2023.

“ While two months generally does not make a trend, and rising oil prices and interest rates are limiting factors, the cycle is on a positive track,” Cass said in its Oct. 13 index report.“ With modest retail and industrial growth, and some inventory restocking as container imports surge, freight demand is recovering.”

That recovery is evident in the S & P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index( PMI), which rose to 55.9 in September, its highest point since May 2022, from 53.9 in August.

“ September has seen the pace of US manufacturing growth pick up a gear,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S & P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. A surge in new orders encouraged factories to

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lift output sharply and take on workers in increasing numbers, he added.

All five components of the S & P Global PMI supported the increase in the index. Panelists commented on a broadbased increase in demand, with government and techrelated industries mentioned as sources of higher sales, S & P Global said. US manufacturers responded by increasing their production sharply.

“ While sending an encouraging signal for further growth of manufacturing capacity in the coming months, the indication that demand is outstripping supply also means inflationary pressures remain a key area of concern, especially amid high oil prices,” Williamson said.

The Institute for Supply Management( ISM) PMI was mostly flat in September at 54.5. ISM reported similar increases in orders and production.

Despite the manufacturing gains, consumer sentiment remains dreary, with the US Consumer Confidence Index falling 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level in about 12 years, according to the Conference Board, which publishes the index. And the University of Michigan

US manufacturing activity accelerating

Seasonally-adjusted world, US, Asia, China and EU manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Indexes( PMIs); a reading of 50 or higher indicates sequential growth

PMI

55

40 50

45

40

Source: S & P Global

Haddock said promising a carrier thousands of annual loads is insufficient if the carrier does not know when and where those loads will materialize. Forecasts should be detailed by lane and time period so carriers can plan equipment and drivers around expected demand.

This suggests the definition of“ shipper of choice” is becoming more precise as capacity tightens. It is not simply customers that paid the highest rate during the downturn or maintained the friendliest relationship. It’ s those offering predictable freight, realistic forecasts, efficient facilities, sustainable economics and enough continuity for a carrier to incorporate that business into its network.

Those attributes will not guarantee yesterday’ s rate when the market turns. But when trucks become scarce, they may help determine who gets one.

email: contactdanronan @ gmail. com

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November 2, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 41