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Carriers will take delivery of 14 million TEUs of vessel capacity in the next three years. VladSV / Shutterstock. com
Ocean carriers face capacity-driven cyclical downturn from 2027
By Greg Knowler
Container shipping is on track for a cyclical downturn next year as new vessels join the global fleet and capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages around southern Africa returns to the market, industry executives say.
But the timing and severity of the market correction remain contested, with the outlook heavily dependent on geopolitics, executives told a panel discussion hosted by Hapag-Lloyd on Oct. 16.
“ The key challenge for 2027 in my book is the beginning of the cyclical downturn,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce analyst.“ In the absence of a new geopolitical disaster, after Chinese New Year is basically when we will begin this cyclical downturn.”
Jensen said the container shipping was back where it was in November 2023, facing excess capacity and a market downturn.
“ The way I see it is there is no avoiding [ a downturn ], unless we see another major geopolitical disaster,” he said. Other executives on the Hapag-Lloyd panel believe cargo growth, supply chain complexity and continued geopolitical disruption will support the market through much of 2027.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen acknowledged the enormous order book, but played down the impact it would have on the container shipping market in 2027.
“ I think that the effect in 2027 will not be all that big,” Habben Jansen told the webinar.“ When I look at 2027, the deliveries, especially in the beginning of the year, are not all that significant. Quite a bit of it comes in the second half and especially in 2028 and 2029.
Tidal wave of newbuilds to hit the water in 2027-29
Global container ship fleet deliveries and retirements by ship size, with forecast
6,000,000
TEU capacity
4,000,000-1,000,000 2,000,000
0
-2,000,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
2020
L
|
|
2025 |
|
2030 |
< 3,000 TEUs |
3,000-5,000 TEUs |
5,001-10,000 TEUs |
10,001-15,000 TEUs |
15,001-20,000 TEUs |
> 20,001 TEUs |
Retirements |
|
|
|
Notes: Shaded areas indicate forecasts |
Source: Sea-web, S & P Global © 2026 S & P Global www. joc. com November 2, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 27