Container Shipping Quarterly
Special Report
Shippers are planning for the Suez Canal ( pictured ) to reopen , but not any time soon . Markeliz / Shutterstock . com
will likely bring to carriers ’ attention — a sharp increase in average spot prices on the Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean trade lanes .
The rates are rising ahead of carriers rolling out freight-all-kinds ( FAK ) increases on Nov . 1 that may stick as the market heads for a “ mini peak season ” ahead of an early Lunar New Year holiday in late January .
Average spot rates from North Asia to North Europe reached $ 4,100 per FEU in the last week of October , up 21 % from the previous week and 230 % from the same
“ We will be prepared in case the Red Sea reopens and rates fall .”
Total Asia-North Europe capacity — both available and blanked — is expected to be 1.21 million TEUs in November compared with just over 1 million TEUs during the same month last year , according to eeSea .
“ Some carriers have announced blanked sailings in November as demand lags , but the usual Lunar New Year volume and rate rebound may start earlier than usual as the holiday begins in late January instead of early February this year ,” Judah Levine , head of research at Freightos , noted in a market update , adding that shippers may start increasing orders early to accommodate longer sailing times .
email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com week last year , according to Platts , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . Asia – Mediterranean rates also averaged $ 4,100 per FEU , up 15 % sequentially and 166 % year over year .
With longer voyages around Africa extending transit times for European goods imported from Asia combining with a Lunar New Year almost two weeks earlier than last year , the recent rally in rates may continue through the fourth quarter .
Blank sailings are another factor influencing rate levels as carriers pull capacity management levers to keep prices elevated .
Data from visibility provider eeSea shows carriers are so far expected to blank 118,545 TEUs in November on Asia-Europe , representing 10 % of available capacity on the trade . That ’ s about the same as October but a significant jump from 4.5 % blanked in September .
Asia – Europe carriers increase capacity , blanks through year-end
Asia – North Europe container ship capacity , deployed and blanked , with forecast
TEU capacity
1M
-400k 500k
0
-500k LJan 2023 Jul Jan 2024 Jul
Actual capacity |
Expected capacity |
Blanked capacity |
Notes : As of Oct . 21 , 2024 |
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Source : eeSea © 2024 S & P Global
L www . joc . com November 18 , 2024 | Journal of Commerce 27