2025 Top 100 Importers & Exporters

US apparel shippers brace for tariff-driven volume decline

By Ari Ashe

A March study from consultancy firm Trade Partnership Worldwide has warned of a modest reduction in clothing imports if the US government makes higher tariffs on imported goods permanent and imposes fees on Chinese ships calling US ports.

The US Trade Representative( USTR) has scaled back the scope of planned port fees on Chinese-built ships, but a 124.1 % tariff on clothing and shoes from China remains in place. And with China supplying the lion’ s share of apparel and footwear imports, US importers have limited options to shift sourcing elsewhere.

Imports of apparel and footwear rose 13.3 % in 2024, including a 28.2 % jump in shipments through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.

However, compared with pre-pandemic 2019 levels, clothing imports were up just 3.8 %. The five-year compound annual growth rates of 4 % nationally and a mere 0.5 % in Los Angeles and Long Beach also betray a much slower long-term expansion of consumer demand.

While sourcing has increased from Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Vietnam since 2019, China still accounted for 41.7 % of containerized US apparel and footwear imports last year, according to PIERS.

Citing a study by Trade Partnership Worldwide, the American Apparel and Footwear Association( AAFA) said in comments to the USTR that tariffs will cause apparel imports to decline 1.6 % annually and leather imports such as shoes and accessories 2.7 % annually. In addition, the study estimated retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and

Clothing

IMPORTS

1,766,967 TEUS

↑13.3 %

Change from 2023

↑4.0 %

5-year compound annual growth rate other countries would cause US apparel exports to drop 11.1 % and leather products shipments to fall 13 %, assuming current tariffs remain in place.

Even with the 90-day pause to reciprocal tariffs, the association is concerned about how the uncertainty impacts shippers. Many of its members shifted sourcing to Vietnam during the first Trump administration.

“ The on-again, off-again tariff policy is forcing companies to careen between chaos and costs.”

“ The on-again, off-again tariff policy is forcing companies to careen between chaos and costs,” AAFA CEO Steve Lamar said in an April 9 statement.“ This extreme tariff on US imports from China, which is in addition to President Trump’ s Section 301 tariffs, will lead to higher prices for everyday apparel, footwear, and accessories and higher costs for US manufacturers who rely on materials and items they can only source from China.”

The group is also worried about whether US terminal and rail infrastructure can handle the consolidation of calls and volumes at larger ports that ocean carriers have warned would result from the USTR port fees.

“ The supply of intermodal transportation is already limited, and the increased demand to move goods to major ports would further aggravate this issue, causing significant congestion,” Nate Herman, AAFA senior vice president of policy, said in a letter to the USTR.

Last year, the AAFA pushed to expand de minimis rules, which allow packages under $ 800 to enter duty-free, to foreign trade zones and against efforts to eliminate the rule. The Trump administration on April 2 said it would end the exemption for Chinese goods on May 2.

email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com

Apparel imports rise yoy in 16 of 17 months through March

Containerized US clothing imports, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change

TEU volume

200,000

180,000

100,000 160,000

140,000

120,000

40 %

20 % 100 %

0 %

-20 %

Year-over-year % change

TEU Year-over-year % change

Source: PIERS, S & P Global

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42 Journal of Commerce | May 5, 2025 www. joc. com