2026 Top 100 Importers & Exporters Spotlight
Middle East air freight return unlikely despite ceasefire
Although the April ceasefire between US and Iran marked the first diplomatic shift in the conflict, international air carriers regarded it as more of a controlled easing, rather than an operational reset. Frederic Horst, managing director of Sydney-based consultancy Trade and Transport Group, said that until the ceasefire“ feels” more permanent, non-Gulf-based carriers would be reluctant to resume normal scheduled activity, adding that“ combined passenger and freight on flights through Gulf-facing hubs [...] are still at less than 40 % of previous levels.” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said bringing air capacity back to the Middle East corridors will provide welcome relief for shippers, many of whom were facing severe disruption to ocean supply chains. But carriers require a far more permanent settlement to the conflict before flights resume, van de Wouw said in a statement from Xeneta.“ Carriers will be in no rush to lower rates given the ceasefire is only temporary and the geopolitical situation remains uncertain. Even when it is deemed safe to fly, setting up the infrastructure again takes time,” he said, adding that“ insurance companies may still advise against transiting these Middle East hubs despite the ceasefire.” Should the ceasefire hold, a full return to pre-conflict capacity and rates on trades transiting Middle East hubs is still one to two months away, van de Wouw said.
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Post-war reconstruction could spur project cargo surge
Rebuilding energy, petrochemical and other critical infrastructure in the Middle East that has been damaged during the war will drive a surge in cargo demand and freight rates in the multipurpose vessel( MPV) and deck carrier markets when the conflict ends, industry executives say.“ Reconstruction needs across the region will be considerable,” Marco Poisler, chief operating officer for global energy and capital projects at project cargo logistics company UTC Overseas, told the Journal of Commerce.“ The pent-up demand wave will hit a market that is not ready for it. And that, historically, is when freight rates for MPV project cargo move most sharply.” The conflict has had little impact on MPV rates so far, with the April Toepfer Transport Multipurpose Vessel Index( TMI) remaining virtually unchanged at $ 12,683 per day, down just 0.53 % from March. Six-month rates are projected to be 0.27 % higher than current levels, and rising 1 % in the 12-month forecast, according to executives polled by Toepfer.“ This may be due to the fact that the majority of cargoes not destined for the Middle East are still being shipped, as expected, and thus fleet utilization remains high,” Toepfer said in a commentary. Damage to energy infrastructure across the region was estimated to cost more than $ 25 billion to repair, according to an initial assessment by Rystad Energy in late March.
IEEPA tariff refunds ahoy
The refund of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act( IEEPA), the first phase of which began April 20, is being managed through a new tool, called Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries( CAPE), that is being built within US Customs and Border Protection( CBP)’ s Automated Commercial Environment Secure Data Portal( ACE Portal). The first phase of the refund process prioritizes so-called unliquidated entries and liquidated entries that are fewer than 80 days old. A liquidated entry means CBP has completed the final assessment of duties, taxes and fees, making the entry legal and closed. The refund process will take up to 45 days once a CAPE declaration has been filed, but the agency has issued no formal timeline for when refunds might actually land in importers’ accounts. To apply for IEEPA tariff refunds, importers must either have an ACE portal account or an automated clearing house( ACH) account so they can receive the refunds; customs experts have advised importers to set up both to avoid delays. If a customs broker or other third party is authorized by an importer to act as a notify party on a customs entry, and if the broker is set up to receive refunds electronically, that party can receive refunds via ACH on behalf of an importer.
8 Journal of Commerce | May 4, 2026 www. joc. com