Importers & Exporters Top 100 2026

“ It will definitely have a negative impact on volumes,” he said.“ Retailers don’ t care about volume as much as revenues. And it might be a situation where their revenues hold up because people are willing to pay more or need something and end up having to pay more.”

Limited diversification

Changes in sourcing patterns are also affecting import volumes of consumer electronics, and they are tied to the size of a product and the composition of parts needed, Gagnon explained. For instance, television supply chains had long ago shifted production to Mexico, but in 2025 those markets became more concentrated.

“ The shift to Mexico didn’ t happen broadly outside of large physical size products,” Gagnon said.“ For smaller products, there’ s not a big benefit to have it more local.”

He also said Mexico is suitable to television production because some of the major component parts— metals and plastics— are not as sophisticated as those needed in other consumer product categories.

Historical behavior in the electronics sector suggests that when prices rise, consumers will either put off purchases, whether new or replacement, or they will engage in what Gagnon called“ trade down behavior,” choosing a less expensive option if they need to buy.

The forecast for consumer electronics manufacturing is not much better. S & P Global Market Intelligence in late February downgraded its projection for global production of consumer electronics from 5.5 % to 4.4 %.

The forecast noted that consumer electronics production tends to correlate loosely with global GDP, overperforming the global economy by 1.6 percentage points, with the gap getting wider over the last ten years, growing to 2.4 percentage points, 5.2 % on average per year.

This would mean a tick down from the average growth rate over the past decade would indicate a slowing sector in a slowing economy. US imports of consumer electronics have lost ground three of the last four years, with 2024 being the outlier, according to PIERS data, adding weight to the slowdown theory not being an isolated trend.

While China dominates the supply chain for consumer electronics— it accounted for 53 % of global production in 2025— S & P Global Market Intelligence said the next 10 years will see supply concentration decrease. PIERS data shows that process already occurring, with Vietnam growing its share of US consumer electronic imports from 10.1 % in 2020 to 18.1 % in 2025, while China’ s share decreased from 56.6 % to 40.7 % in the same period.

Toys and games

IMPORTS

1,068,556 TEUs

↓7.7 %

Change from 2024

↓4.1 %

5-year compound annual growth rate

US toymakers absorbing tariff costs, importing less to preserve sales

By Eric Johnson

Toymakers increased their sales last year on lower import volumes by absorbing higher tariff costs, rather than passing them on to consumers, according to industry analysts and executives.

Overall US retail toy sales grew 6 % in 2025, led primarily by games, puzzles, building sets and trading cards— like Pokémon or Magic the Gathering— according to the Toy Association, an advocacy and research group representing toy manufacturers and retailers. Containerized imports of those products, however, fell 7.7 %, according to PIERS, a sister company to the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.

“ Our category is not recessionproof, but it is recession-resistant,”

Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association, said sales were helped by a surge in spending in the early part of 2025 by adults buying toys for themselves, a boon to an industry that historically has relied heavily on holiday spending for children.

Toys imports rebounding in early 2026

Containerized US toy imports, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change

TEU volume

200,000

50,000

40 % 30 %

-10 %-20 %

TEU Year-over-year % change

Year-over-year % change email: eric. johnson @ spglobal. com

Source: PIERS, S & P Global © 2026 S & P Global www. joc. com May 4, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 37