2026 Top 100 Importers & Exporters

Prolonged Middle East war to weigh on sputtering US auto demand

By Bill Mongelluzzo

Automobiles and auto parts

TOTAL IMPORTS

EXPORTS

US demand for automobiles and auto parts has been straining under higher inflationary costs, but buyers, both consumers and manufacturers, face another level of sticker shock if the war in Middle East extends into the summer.

Even before the war-driven spike in gasoline prices, the US automotive industry was steeling for a tough year. Prior to the start of the conflict, Journal of Commerce parent company S & P Global forecast vehicle sales to fall 2 % from the previous year due to a long list of headwinds for the industry, including higher borrowing costs for vehicle buyers and steel tariffs upping input prices.

But already relatively high prices for new vehicles and auto parts— the cheapest new 2026 model car available is $ 20,550, according to CARFAX— will increase significantly if the war continues through May, according to a mid-March report from S & P Global.

If the war lasts through the end of 2026, that elevated pricing will negatively impact consumer demand and, by extension, container volumes. A war scenario of more than a year will result in continued inflation and declining demand until prices reach a new“ set point,” S & P Global analysts said.

2,316,628 TEUs

↑0.6 %

Change from 2024

↑5.1 %

5-year compound annual growth rate

1,241,389 TEUs

↓9.4 %

Change from 2024

↑3.8 %

5-year compound annual growth rate

1,075,239 TEUs

↑15.3 %

Change from 2024

↑6.6 %

5-year compound annual growth rate

Containerized US imports of automobiles and auto parts fell 9.4 % year over year in 2025, dragging the fiveyear compound annual growth rate down to 3.8 %, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S & P Global. Exports, meanwhile, spiked 15.3 %, boosting the five-year CAGR to 6.6 %. The majority of seaborne vehicle imports and exports travel via roll-on / roll-off( ro / ro) ships; those volumes are not captured by PIERS data.

The uncertainties surrounding the length of the war will undoubtedly impact the US container trade in vehicles and parts as importers and exporters in the automotive sector review and possibly modify their business plans, said Chris Hopson, principal analyst for the global light vehicle forecast group at S & P Global.

“ 2025 was an uncertain year because of the tariffs, and the auto industry digested it better than we might have expected,” Hopson said. However, due to the war, how long the industry can continue to bear those higher costs“ is open to question.”

Slowing new car sales could boost US imports of aftermarket parts used in repairs and maintenance. Shutterstock. com

28 Journal of Commerce | May 4, 2026 www. joc. com