Commentary Land Lines
Largely unscathed
By Larry Gross
A US trade war with Canada and Mexico has been averted , at least for now .
It seems likely , however , that there will be more twists and turns as our trading partners try to figure out what exactly Donald Trump really wants to change in the United States- Mexico-Canada ( USMCA ) free trade deal — a deal that he , himself , negotiated and signed just six years ago .
The large-scale implications of a failure to reach a new stasis have been written about extensively in recent days . In particular , the highly integrated auto industry would be in for
In 2024 , 747,000 intermodal revenue moves were made across the Canada-US border , representing 4.1 % of the total for North America . But the vast majority ( 90 %) of those containers were ocean containers . These were generally boxes that arrived in Canadian ports filled with goods from other nations that were then moved by the Canadian railroads from the port , across the border and into the US for final delivery .
While these flows might be subject to tariffs involving the ultimate origin country ( such as China ), presumably they would not be subject to any tariffs aimed at Canada .
Less than 1.7 % of North American intermodal activity would be directly subject to tariff impacts .
a world of hurt . But what would the direct , nearterm implications be for the North American intermodal sector ?
Perhaps surprisingly , the direct effects would be relatively minor . Collectively , intermodal revenue moves that crossed either the Canadian or Mexican border in 2024 accounted for just 5.7 % of total North American intermodal activity over the course of the year , according to data from the Intermodal Association of North America . However , even that relatively small percentage probably overstates the situation .
US cross-border represents just 5.7 % of intermodal moves
North American intermodal volumes and percentage share by route , in millions of revenue moves
Market share : 1.6 % No . revenue moves : 283
Market share : 4.1 % No . revenue moves : 747
Market share : 3.4 % No . revenue moves : 614
Market share : 12.7 % No . revenue moves : 2,291
Market share : 78.2 % No . revenue moves : 14,155
78.2 %
US
12.7 %
Canada
3.4 %
Mexico
4.1 %
Canada / US X-Border
1.6 %
Mexico / US X-Border
However , to the limited extent that these boxes might carry US-originating / Canadabound cargo on the backhaul , there might be some minor impacts .
That leaves just 75,000 revenue moves of domestic containers that crossed the Canada-US border in 2024 , representing only 0.4 % of total North American intermodal activity .
The situation is entirely different on the Mexico-US border , which accounted for 1.6 % of total intermodal activity in 2024 . This traffic is 99 % domestic containers , with only a trickle of ocean containers moving across by rail . Virtually all of this traffic would be subject to tariff impacts .
By this calculation , less than 1.7 % of North American intermodal activity would be directly subject to tariff impacts . Put another way , this works out to 3.9 % of the intra-North America movements of domestic intermodal equipment .
To be clear , none of this should be interpreted to mean that a ( completely unnecessary ) trade war wouldn ’ t matter . The knock-on effects would be severe , both domestically — i . e ., inflation — and in relations with our neighbors , not to mention the impacts on our relations with the rest of the world when it becomes clear that any signed agreement with the US can be blown up at any time with a tweet .
But this does say that among the many impacts that may result from a trade war , the intermodal aspects pale in comparison .
Source : Intermodal Association of North America © 2025 S & P Global email : lgross @ intermodalindepth . com
76 Journal of Commerce | March 3 , 2025 www . joc . com