Cold Chain Market Report

Special Report

Global reefer market set to soar amid disruption , strong demand

By Richard Bright

While projecting short-term trends for the global reefer charter market is relatively straightforward , it is increasingly difficult to forecast medium-term trends .

Although there is broad consensus and plenty of supporting evidence that the global volume of perishable and other temperature-sensitive goods will continue to rise , forecasting for the reefer market is no longer contingent on the traditional supply and demand levers for reefer cargo . Instead , other variables , often entirely unrelated to the trade in perishable goods , now determine the state of the reefer market , particularly for containers — the pricing of reefer containers is the most critical variable determining charter rates for specialized reefer vessels .

Specialized reefer ships hold less than 3 % of global reefer capacity . Consequently , the mode is a price taker . That it holds an estimated 15 % to 18 % share of globally transported perishable goods is a testament to its greater efficiency and to its demand inelasticity . In some trades , and for specific reasons , cargo has a legitimate commercial rationale to prefer the specialized alternative and is prepared to pay a premium for the privilege .

However , while it may occupy an ever-shrinking niche and have some resistance to the shift in competitive reefer rates that carriers offer given this demand inelasticity , the mode is unsurprisingly not immune to the container market ’ s behavior .

Complicating the matter , and in contrast to the logic behind specialized reefer rates , how the carriers price reefer is something of a mystery . Rates often seem arbitrary or bear little relation to commercial or reefer market reality . This is because the list of direct and indirect reefer rate-determining variables for the carriers is long and because container shipping is vulnerable to “ Black Swan ,” “ Grey Rhino ,” “ White Elephant ” and “ Black Jellyfish ” events .

The other major factor is the competition among carriers in general and on specific trade lanes in particular . The latter is more important . The more service strings on a certain voyage , the greater the competition . This maintains pressure on individual carriers and keeps the cost to ship cargo realistic .

However , the opposite is true as well ; the fewer services , the lower the competition . This is why , in the short term , cargo ( both reefer and general ) is right to fear the growing consolidation of the container shipping industry . In the medium-to-long term , the disappearance of the specialized alternative will further rationalize options , at least for reefer cargo .

Strong Q1 forecast

What then of the reefer ? It is not extreme to suggest that the specialized mode feeds on disruptions in the reefer container supply chain and well beyond .

For example , during the COVID-19 pandemic , demand for the specialized reefer mode soared — not because of an increase in the trade in perishable products , but because the carriers were using their equipment as non-operational reefers ( NORs ) to transport better-paying general cargo , thereby creating a reefer capacity shortage .

Meanwhile , the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to the abandonment of all containerized services , bar those from Mediterranean Shipping Co . This has led to the absorption of more specialized reefer capacity of which Cool Carriers remains the major beneficiary .

Since October 2023 , when the Houthi rebels in Yemen first attacked commercial vessels , the carriers have been forced to divert away from Suez and sail around the Cape of Good Hope . This has increased time and expense for east-west carrier services . It has also , therefore , tied up more dry vans and reefer containers for longer , creating localized shortages where demand is strong .

For example , the combination of inventory shortages and the start of the Chilean cherry season saw container

40 Journal of Commerce | March 3 , 2025 www . joc . com