International Maritime
MSC , CMA CGM lead record container ship orders
Top 10 carriers ' container ship fleet and newbuild capacity on order , in TEUs , with percentage of capacity on order to existing fleet
MSC
A . P . Moeller - Maersk
Hapag-Lloyd Ocean Network Express Ocean Network Express
Source : S & P Global
CMA CGM Cosco / OOCL
Evergreen Line HMM
Yang Ming Line Zim
9 %
11 %
22 %
31 %
32 %
25 %
17 %
30 %
0 5,000,000 L In service
On order
27 %
© 2025 S & P Global
L the container shipping fleet has increase by 1.4 years since the beginning of 2020 to about 14 years on a per-ship basis .
The number of ships now 20 years old or older comprises 3.4 million TEUs , equal to 11 % of the fleet , BIMCO data shows . Rasmussen said if all ships 20 years old or older were recycled during the next five years , the fleet will grow to 35.8 million TEUs by end-2029 , assuming no more ships are contracted for delivery before 2030 . That is equal to 16 % growth , or average annual growth of 3 %.
“ It would require 680,000 TEUs per year to recycle all ships 20 years old or older during the next five years — the current annual record is 657,000 TEUs — but actual recycling is likely to end lower ,” Rasmussen said .
“ As long as ships cannot fully return to the Red Sea , recycling will likely continue to be low and at the same time the smaller ship segments tend to be recycled later than average ,” Rasmussen added . “ Therefore , average annual fleet growth during the next five years could end higher than 3 %.” up 38 % year over year , DNV data showed . Of that total , 264 vessels powered by liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) were ordered , up 103 % from 2023 , with 166 orders for methanolcapable vessels , up 4 %.
Record deliveries
Niels Rasmussen , chief shipping analyst at BIMCO , said even with the record size of the order book at the end of 2024 — and a record 2.9 million TEUs delivered during the year — orders have continued . Five ships have already been contracted for delivery in 2030 , but 99 % of the order book will be delivered during 2025 – 29 , he noted .
According to the current schedule , Rasmussen said 700,000 TEUs of capacity will be delivered in 2029 while an average of 1.9 million TEUs will be delivered every year from 2025 to 2028 , peaking at 2.2 million TEUs in 2027 . According to BIMCO , there has been virtually no scrapping over the past few years and the average age of
“ A long-term newbuild cycle is underway , with tailwinds from the renewal of an aging fleet .”
Tiedemann explained the scale of new capacity required to renew the global fleet .
“ Assuming 25 years as the normal asset life of a ship , you would need 4 % of fleet capacity every year just as a 1:1 replacement ,” he said . “ That means in the long run , we would need to see 1.25 million TEUs ordered and delivered year-in year-out just to replace the current fleet on a revolving basis . Add to that a modest 2 % year-over-year growth and extra fleet demand from further slow steaming and congestion .”
email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com
Evergreen ’ s 11-ship order adds to the record 8.3 million TEUs of container ship capacity already on order . MartinLueke / Shutterstock . com
36 Journal of Commerce | March 3 , 2025 www . joc . com