International Maritime

The pre-Lunar New Year Asia – Europe cargo rush came earlier than usual this year . Mundofoto / Shutterstock . com

An Asia-based supply chain manager said Asia – Europe contract rates are high given weak expectations for demand this year . He estimated the annual rates were about 30 % above those agreed to at this time last year .

“ But once Suez Canal transits are back , every shipper on that trade lane will renegotiate the rate down to the old levels before the Africa diversions ,” he said . “ There are still a lot of unknowns out there and Asia-Europe will be a buyers ’ market this year .”

The base case from global bank HSBC is for Red Sea transits to resume from mid-2025 , which it said implied 10.5 % effective capacity growth in 2025 compared with 2.7 % volume growth , thus placing heavy downward pressure on prices .

“ With little incentive for liners to revert to the Red Sea , we think liners could still see decent first-half 2025 earnings , but profits should deteriorate in [ the second half ],” the bank noted in its Jan . 28 Global Freight Monitor report .

email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com

Murky outlook no barrier to newbuild container ship bonanza

By Greg Knowler

Tiedemann outlined a series of other orders that may be finalized soon . Those include orders of up to 22 ships of 18,000 TEUs by CMA CGM and 10 ships of 11,500 TEUs by Greek shipowner George Economou . Yang Ming was also mulling a fleet renewal plan and Mediterranean Shipping Co . could drop an order at any time , he said .

In a report released on Jan . 22 , global bank HSBC said ocean carriers were heading into a period of fleet renewal and a transition to more energy-efficient vessels . And while new orders would decline over the next four years compared with 2024 levels , they would remain 40 % above the annual average during 2016 to 2020 , the bank said .

The transition to new fuels and an aging fleet continue to drive container ship orders , with no sign of a newbuilding slowdown despite full yards , an uncertain demand outlook and a lack of clarity over green fuel availability .

By the end of 2024 , a record capacity of 8.3 million TEUs filled the global vessel order book — some 27.7 % of the in-service fleet — with a potential series of large new orders waiting for the green light , according to Jan Tiedemann , senior analyst at Alphaliner .

“ Currently , there is little sign of an order slowdown , despite sky-high newbuilding prices ,” he told the Journal of Commerce on Jan . 22 . “ One of the reasons for this is quite simple : The carriers are sitting on piles of cash , which they ‘ have to ’ spend .”

Evergreen Marine has since finalized an order for 11 24,000-TEU vessels capable of sailing on LNG , and

“ The carriers are sitting on piles of cash , which they ‘ have to ’ spend .”

“ We believe a long-term newbuild cycle is underway , with tailwinds from the renewal of an aging fleet and over 60,000 fossil-fueled cargo ships to be replaced over the next two decades ,” the report noted .

In 2024 , 69 % of all container ship orders were for ships that could use alternative fuels , driven by cargo owners responding to consumer demands for more sustainable practices and ocean carriers preparing to replace older tonnage , according to a report by classification society DNV .

Last year , 515 vessels were added to the order book ,

34 Journal of Commerce | March 3 , 2025 www . joc . com