Trans-Pacific Maritime
Special Report
Carriers have reportedly opened Asia – US West Coast contract rate negotiations at $ 2,500 per FEU . Shutterstock . com logistics manager at a national retailer . “ My gut tells me the rate [ from Asia to the West Coast ] will be below $ 2,000 [ per FEU ].”
An importer in the automotive sector said he has heard the rates carriers are now quoting , and how carriers feel they must charge compensatory rates to make up for falling short a year ago . “ Carriers have told us the story about setting contract rates that did not cover their costs last year , and they are determined not to make the same mistake again this year ,” the source said .
‘ So much uncertainty ’
Still , with spot rates dropping steadily during the Lunar New Year lull and the uncertainty around US tariffs , there is apparently no rush to sign up for the rates carriers are quoting at present .
“ What is the market ’ s perception of 2025 ? Shipping lines want to take the initiative ,” the carrier source said .
Forwarders appear to be equally divided as to what rate levels the market will support , given the uncertainties over whether vessels will resume normal transits through the Suez Canal and Red Sea at some point this year . A shift back to the Suez would mean a flood of capacity — now being absorbed by the longer transits around southern Africa — returning to the market , thus softening rates .
Another unknown hanging over the market is around potential new tariffs that may be implemented by the Trump administration .
“ Everything that is happening is exerting downward pressure [ on rates ],” said Robert Fredman , principal at the consulting firm SF Global Insights and a former
“ Everything that is happening is exerting downward pressure .”
“ We will probably wait until late April to sign just because of so much uncertainty with the tariffs ,” the importer said .
Given the uncertainties linked to the Red Sea and the Trump tariffs , Jon Monroe , who serves as a consultant to NVOs , said it is difficult at this time to determine what the capacity situation in the trans-Pacific will be . However , carrier costs have risen in recent years , so if they remain www . joc . com March 3 , 2025 | Journal of Commerce 13