Surface Transportation
Trucking | Rail | Intermodal | Air & Expedited | Distribution
Mark Reinstein / Corbis via Getty Images
Spotting an opportunity
Intermodal savings spiked in Q4, but providers remain cautious
By Ari Ashe
US shippers saved a record 25.6 % on spot market freight and 25.4 % on contract loads in the fourth quarter by using domestic intermodal instead of long-haul trucking amid a rise in truckload spot rates, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index( ISI).
It’ s the first time in the history of the ISI, the underlying data for which dates back to 2016, that the spot market index was higher than the contract index.
The driver was unusually frigid weather and snowstorms in the US in December that caused spot truckload rates to jump, while railroads have continued to keep spot market rates low. Railroads tend to lag truckload rates, hiking pricing only after there is strong enough evidence that truckload markets have inflected toward motor carriers.
Given the severe winter weather in January, it remains to be seen whether railroads take the opportunity to increase spot rates in the first quarter or hold back until normal weather conditions return and gauge the trucking market only then.
“[ It’ ll take ] a little more time before we see intermodal prices catch up to what we expect in truckload.”
North American railroads hauled 2.29 million domestic containers in the fourth quarter, up 2.2 % compared with a year earlier, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA). The results were slightly higher than the Journal of Commerce forecast of 2.26 million loads for the fourth quarter. There was an additional 1.5 working days in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter of 2024, according to a Journal of Commerce calculation, which assigns weightings to each day of the week, and holidays, based on historical data from the US Surface Transportation Board.
The Spot ISI averaged 125.6 in the fourth quarter, up from 120.2 a year earlier. The Contract ISI slipped to 125.4 from 126.4 a year earlier.
54 Journal of Commerce | March 2, 2026 www. joc. com