Letter from the Editor

By Mark Szakonyi

Volatility caused by a shambolic network increases incentives for carriers to improve their reliability.

The high level of port-to-port ocean reliability the Gemini Cooperation has delivered since its launch a year ago is pressuring other carriers and alliances to up their game.

Yet the obstacles for ocean carriers to remain profitable expand as liners cycle deeper into overcapacity in the coming years. To protect their profitability, container lines are now better at managing short-term demand and supply and removing functional capacity. Successfully keeping utilization high, paradoxically, weakens the network, said Trine Nielsen, vice president of ocean / global at forwarder Flexport.

“ As‘ micro-events’( e. g., localized port congestion, labor strikes) are expected to increase due to shifting trade patterns and introducing more mega-ships, we expect network instability to rise,” she said.“ In fact, as more capacity enters the market, we anticipate even further instability because we should expect more aggressive capacity management actions by carriers to protect their profitability.”

Facing congestion at Asia load centers such as Shanghai or Ningbo, ocean carriers may have the vessel omit the port entirely to not throw off the rest of their schedule. In some cases, vessels“ swap” calls with one vessel covering Shanghai rather than Ningbo, and vice versa, Nielsen said.

“ While this maximizes asset utilization and prevents a vessel backlog, it triggers blank sailings and forces customers to deal with rolled cargo and unpredictable transit times,” she said.

Port productivity globally is worsening, with S & P Global’ s Container Port Performance Index falling from a reading of 38 in 2020 to zero in 2024. Tropical storms have multiplied in recent years, and the intensity and unpredictability of cyclones has increased in the last decade, said Craig West, CEO for Europe at Weathernews.

“ Volatility is not confined to extreme events. Conditions in the Central Atlantic have recently been practically impassable, with persistent weather patterns across the Bay of Biscay and English Channel leaving vessels drifting for multiple days,” West told the Journal of Commerce.“ There is no headline-grabbing storm in these situations, yet the commercial damage to uptime and schedule reliability is significant.”

Optimistically, the volatility from an overall shambolic network offers increased incentives for ocean carriers to improve their reliability, allowing them to stand out more in a volatile, oft-commoditized market and gain higher and more stable pricing in return. After launching in February 2025, Gemini members Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are making the case that their joint network’ s better than 90 % reliability is giving customers enough certainty to reduce their inventories by two weeks.

Gemini vessels hit 81 % reliability in 2025, according to data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta’ s eeSea. Global ocean reliability for the entire industry has been falling since July, reaching 25.4 % thus far in February.

“ Shippers are also telling us that one of their priorities for 2026 is service reliability,” said Kelly Buckley, deputy director of ocean procurement at Drewry Supply Chain advisors.“ Gemini has really raised the profile of that topic, and we can expect shippers to assess much more carefully on-time performance and lead times as part of their [ trans-Pacific contracting ] this year.”

The last few years of shipping disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Suez Canal security concerns, and then tariffs left small and medium-size shippers with little time to focus on reliability as they tried to keep their business afloat, Buckley said. Mounting overcapacity gives these shippers more leverage in service contract negotiations and allows them, she said, to“ actually start to take a step back and ask questions without fear of the fact that your cargo then may not make it on the vessel the next week.”

Transparency on schedule changes remains an issue, Buckley said. Shippers struggle to keep up with nearly last-minute blank notice announcements, and she said some Drewry customers learned after that fact that their cargo was routed through the Suez Canal via the perilous Red Sea.

Meanwhile, though transit time reliability is critical for apparel shipper Sanmar’ s new product launches and deliveries from new vendors, it’ s only one element of service, said John Janson, Sanmar’ s global logistics director.

“ Normally, transit reliability is not as important to us if it is within a reasonable timeframe,” he said.“ Having the equipment and space is more critical as our origins are counting on being able to load as most do not have storage.”

Janson noted that ocean carriers allowed Sanmar— the US’ s 79th largest importer, according to the Journal of Commerce’ s 2024 rankings— to exceed forecast volumes for emergencies and guaranteed that shipments would beat tariffs deadlines, saving the company hundreds of thousands of dollars.

“ No surprise, the folks that stepped up were the ones where we have made the most serious investment in relationships,” he said.

email: mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com

4 Journal of Commerce | March 2, 2026 www. joc. com