International Maritime

Shippers shoulder burden of Red Sea uncertainty as regional tensions rise again

By Greg Knowler

Carriers and their customers once again wonder when they will be able to safely transit the Suez Canal route— more than two years after the Iran-supported Houthi militants began their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea— after a US carrier strike group arrived in the Gulf of Oman to back up another threat by President Donald Trump to take military action against Iran, which vowed to respond to any attacks.

“ Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out

there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta.“ They’ re at the bottom of the operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any other stakeholder in the equation.”

Shippers, Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce, are forced to create a procurement strategy that“ rests on their ability to surmise the behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [ and ] militias.”

“ Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best data visibility out there, we can’ t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six days in a scenario like this,” she said.

After two years of diversions around southern Africa, expectations that head-haul Suez voyages would likely resume after the Lunar New Year gathered momentum when Maersk on Jan. 15 announced that a Middle East-US East Coast service would be routed through the Red Sea.

But the ink was barely dry on that announcement when CMA CGM, one of the main Red Sea users over the past two years, said it would scale back plans to send three Asia – Europe westbound services through the Suez, citing the“ complex and uncertain international context.”

Everyone feels the pain. Few understand the root cause. Even fewer have a foundation to fix it.

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