Trans-Pacific Maritime
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But the decline in listed spot rates in February is only part of the story.
According to a trans-Pacific forwarder who asked not to be named, carriers were still offering discounted rates, known as bullet or voyage-specific rates, that were as
Trans-Pacific blanks on the rise as demand falters
Asia– US container ship capacity, deployed and blanked, with planned
TEU capacity
Asia-USWC spot rates down more than 50 % in early 2026
Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU
USD per FEU
3M 2.5M
2M
1.5M-500k
1M
500k
0
-500k L Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jan 2026,
Source: eeSea
$ 10,000
$ 8,000
$ $ 10,000 6,000
$ 4,000 $ 3,086
$ 2,000
Actual capacity Planned capacity Blanked capacity
© 2026 S & P Global
$ 0 L Jul Jan 2025
Jul Feb Jan, 2026
L
L much as several hundred dollars lower than their posted spot and freight-all-kinds( FAK) rates.“ It’ s the bullet rates that are moving cargo,” they said. That pricing structure would seem to indicate that retailers and other importers will have leverage in annual service contract negotiations that are already underway and will pick up in intensity in early March, following the Journal of Commerce’ s TPM26 conference in Long Beach.
Canceled capacity
In another sign of tepid demand, carriers blanked more sailings on the trans-Pacific in February and plan to do so again in March. The 307,721 TEUs of capacity removed from the Asia – US trade route via skipped sailings in February brought overall deployed capacity down to 1.84 million TEUs from 1.92 million TEUs in January, according to data from Xeneta subsidiary eeSea.
“ Carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks commencing Feb. 23 and March 2 in classic response to the lower exports out of China as a result of the CNY festive days,” Sand said.
As of mid-February, carriers had announced blank sailings with a combined capacity of 288,499 TEUs for March, but absent additional cuts, the arrival of new vessels will push total planned capacity to a record 2.18 million TEUs for the month.
Retailers have been warning to expect weaker cargo volumes in the first four months of the year since late 2025. The latest Global Port Tracker report, published monthly by the National Retail Federation( NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that US imports slipped 3.1 % year over year in February and will fall 12 % in March and 7.1 % in April.
US consumer confidence, a forward-looking indicator of spending and, in turn, import demand,“ collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at think tank the Conference Board. The Conference Board’ s consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below market expectations and the lowest reading since May 2014.
Source: Platts, S & P Global
North Asia to US East Coast North Asia to US West Coast
© 2026 S & P Global email: bill. mongelluzzo @ spglobal. com email: mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com
16 Journal of Commerce | March 2, 2026 www. joc. com