Trans-Pacific Maritime

Special Report

Lack of pre-LNY cargo surge bodes poorly By Bill Mongelluzzo and Mark Szakonyi

It’ s still too early to make any definitive declarations about the outlook for the trans-Pacific container trade in 2026, but the lack of a traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush does not bode well.

Factories in China close for at least a week during the Lunar New Year holidays, which normally causes a freight surge of some magnitude before the doors shut.

But this year, sources predicted that sustained weak market fundamentals— due in part to continued caution around US import tariffs— would keep the typical surge in loadings prior to the festivities that began Feb. 17 from happening. And they were right.

“ I would say demand is muted. There’ s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs,” an ocean carrier executive who asked not to be identified said.“ There has already been frontloading of spring merchandise.”

To the extent there was any rush at all, it was already“ clearly behind us” by early February, said Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, adding that 2026 would be“ another year where supply growth exceeds demand growth.”

Slumping spot market

The“ muted” demand from importers dragged on spot rates in the weeks leading up to the Lunar New Year factory closures. Since the start of the year, short-term pricing from Asia to the US has hovered roughly 50 % below the same period in 2025, according to various indexes.

“ Demand is muted. There’ s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs.”

North Asia – US West Coast rates averaged $ 1,620 per FEU in mid-February, down 21.9 % from the start of January and 53.2 % year over year, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Drewry pegged average pricing from Shanghai to Los Angeles at $ 2,214 per FEU, down 52.3 % from February 2025, while the Shanghai Shipping Exchange’ s aggregate spot rate of $ 1,787 per FEU was down 49.6 %.

Asia – US spot rates have been hovering roughly 50 % below prioryear levels. asharkyu / Shutterstock. com

14 Journal of Commerce | March 2, 2026 www. joc. com