Peak Season Forecast: Ocean, Intermodal, Air and Trucking
Special Report
“ All carriers are facing serious space shortage as they’ ve cut a large percentage of their capacities by service suspension and blank sailing in the previous two months,” forwarder Honour Lane told customers on May 20.“ Most vessels are very full by the end of month, and many of them have overbooking.”
How big?
The ramp-up in Chinese exports to the US is already contributing to congestion at origin ports and sucking up much-needed functional capacity, with equipment shortages and vessel bunching mounting in Shanghai, Qingdao and Ningbo.
“ The sheer surge will test the system, and disruption cannot be avoided.”
“ North China ports are facing increased waiting times due to berth congestion, further impacted by intermittent port closures caused by strong winds and dense fog,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a mid-May customer advisory.
The scale of the surge in volumes set to hit the US West Coast isn’ t clear, and as a result, it is not clear whether marine terminals and the surrounding port system can handle them without delays.
Trans-Pacific spot rates spike amid US-China tariff pause
Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU
USD per FEU
$ 10,000
$ 8,000
$ $ 10,000 6,000
$ 4,000
$ 2,000
$ 0
Source: Platts, S & P Global
L Jul Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025
North Asia to US East Coast
North Asia to US West Coast
Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, is confident that the nation’ s busiest US container gateway is ready to handle it.
“ You won’ t see a deluge of freight here at the Port of Los Angeles,” Seroka said in May 18 briefing.“ We will not be caught off guard.”
Like during the COVID-19 pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be outside the truck gates, not at the marine terminals and more. There, importers and consignees could face limited availability of warehousing and chassis, and a rush of international intermodal shipments could sap rail car supply.
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14 Journal of Commerce | June 2, 2025 www. joc. com