Window of opportunity

Record Q1 intermodal savings to shrink in coming quarters

Domestic intermodal volumes rose 4 % in Q1 2026, including a 9.5 % jump in March. Wirestock / Getty Images

By Ari Ashe

US shippers achieved record savings in spot and contract freight in the first quarter by using domestic intermodal instead of long-haul trucking amid a rise in truckload spot rates, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index( ISI).

For the second consecutive quarter, the spot market index was higher than the contract index, with shippers saving 30.6 % on spot market freight and 26.2 % on contract loads. The window to lock in these record savings, however, will shrink as railroads eventually will increase their spot and contract pricing, too.

Like motor carriers, railroads and intermodal marketing companies( IMCs) have been unable to recover cost inflation in their intermodal operations for three years. Railroads and IMCs have begun the repricing process, which typically lags full truckload by three to six months.

“ In terms of pricing, the overthe-road market dropped much further than intermodal did.”

Major asset-based IMCs are rejecting tenders, shedding low-margin freight, or taking other measures to limit their exposure to the shipments that they accepted in recent years to keep their containers full. As shippers face the prospect of losing guaranteed capacity, there are many who will agree to rate increases to keep product moving. The higher rates will also show up in annual contracts being negotiated in the second and third quarters.

“ In terms of pricing, the over-the-road market dropped much further than intermodal did, so, in terms of the degree of change, I am not sure we will see the same degree in intermodal as over the road,” Jim Filter, EVP of Schneider National, said on an April 30 earnings call.“ In terms of timing, typically we say about two quarters [ lag ], and from what we can see, we stay pretty consistent with that.”

Domestic intermodal volume in March jumped 9.5 % year over year, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA). North American railroads hauled 2.19 million domestic containers in the first quarter, up 4 % compared with a year ago, according to IANA. The results were slightly higher than the Journal of Commerce mid-range forecast of volume growth between 1 % and 3 %, due mostly to the unanticipated surge in March.

“ We are seeing increased demand in how [ shippers ] are thinking about intermodal and what they can allocate to intermodal. Current fuel cost is making a difference, as well as [ shippers’] anticipation of what capacity will look like later this year,” Filter said.“ While there is plenty of box capacity, the real constraint in this industry is always dray capacity.”

On the way up

The Spot ISI averaged 130.6 in the first quarter, up from 118.4 a year ago. The Contract ISI rose to 126.3 from 124.9 a year ago. Index values above 100 indicate intermodal is the more cost-effective mode; the higher the index number, the greater the savings. A Spot ISI of 130.6 translates to a 30.6 % savings on intermodal versus truckload, while a Contract ISI of 126.3 implies a 26.3 % savings. All calculations assume local drayage at origin and destination, so shippers with distribution centers more than 30 miles from the terminal may save significantly less than the index values.

Spot truckload rates jumped 19 cents sequentially to $ 2.34 per mile, including fuel, in the first quarter, and spot

Spot intermodal pricing lags surging truckload rates

Average spot rates for US truckload and domestic intermodal rail, in USD per mile

USD per mile

$ 2.5

$ 1.0 $ 2.0

$ 1.5.5

L Jul Jan 2025 Jul

Jan 202626 Apr, 2026

Truckload spot rates

Source: Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index

Intermodal spot rates

42 Journal of Commerce | June 1, 2026 www. joc. com

June 1, 2026 | Page 42

Window of opportunity