Letter from the Editor

By Mark Szakonyi

Facing elevated operating costs, ocean carriers have hair-trigger tolerance for noncompensatory services.

An unexpected jump in container spot rates from Asia to the US and the launch of a seasonal service in June suggests that some semblance of an early peak season is hitting the trans-Pacific trade.

The underlying strength of that peak is unclear, however, with blank sailings, fuel-linked surcharges and a changeover in annual service contracts all putting upward pressure on spot and freight-all-kind( FAK) rates. Still, some see momentum in the market, with Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen telling investors that“ demand at the moment is quite strong” on the trans-Pacific.

“ I’ m fairly optimistic about the peak season,” he said on the carrier’ s first-quarter earnings call May 13.

The general rate increase( GRI) sought by ocean carriers on May 15 clearly connected, with container rates hitting their highest point so far this year, according to various indices. The cost to ship an FEU from North Asia to the US West Coast passed the $ 3,000 mark in the week of May 20, as measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, though that was up just 1 % from a year ago.

The Global Port Tracker forecasts US import volumes will rise marginally in May on a year-over-year basis, but the gains are illusory since imports crashed during the same period in 2025 following the widespread implementation of US tariffs. Maersk on June 8 plans to launch a seasonal trans-Pacific extra loader connecting Vietnam’ s Cai Mep and Busan in South Korea to Long Beach, a modest sign of anticipated demand.

Still, the outlook for July and August worsens, with GPT, produced by Hackett Associates on behalf of the National Retail Federation, predicting that import volumes will be down nearly 8 % and 5 %, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

Some of the increase in trans-Pacific spot rates is due to fuel-linked surcharges of hundreds of dollars per container and artificial capacity tightness created by the phasing in of new annual service contracts, which generally began May 1. One forwarder estimates that 17 % to 20 % of capacity had been cut on services it utilizes from Asia to the US West Coast between mid-April and early May.

“ It seems to be a little bit of surge [ of cargo ] there that may have been trying to get in before new elevated contract levels [ take effect ],” the forwarder said.

Container lines are blanking less and deploying incrementally more tonnage as peak season nears, according to eeSea data. But blank sailings can still have an impact as demand ratchets up.

“ Current demand is very strong and the industry is preparing for sustained volume pressure rather than a short-lived spike,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics.“ Multiple carrier actions indicate expectations for continued strong booking levels through early summer.”

Kavas estimates that the coming weeks will be busy on the eastbound trans-Pacific as carriers take a more disciplined approach to capacity, having booked record profits during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to tightening of available capacity.

Facing elevated operating costs due to war-driven fuel prices and after an unspectacular service contracting cycle, ocean carriers have hair-trigger tolerance for noncompensatory services. Maersk and Evergreen in May reported declining profits in the first quarter, while Hapag-Lloyd recorded an“ unsatisfactory” loss in the same period.

Habben Jansen said service contract rates, excluding the higher fuel costs,“ were a bit down compared to previous year.” Annual contracts for mid-sized importers for the 2026 – 2027 service period ended roughly comparable to slightly less than last year, according to multiple sources.

The threat of rising operating costs and weak demand is front and center for ocean carriers. So-called insufficient capacity management“ will lead to an erosion of the recovery of costs on the short-term market, which could, depending on how much it will erode, quickly get you into a not-so-pleasant place in the second half of the year,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told investors May 7.

The sharply higher bunker fuel costs since the war began have changed carriers’ risk profile and profitability outlook, according to Jason Cook, CEO of the forwarder Ardent Global Logistics.

“ They’ ll be quicker to pull the capacity to fend off losses,” Cook said.

email: mark. szakonyi @ spglobal. com

4 Journal of Commerce | June 1, 2026 www. joc. com