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The US has lost an estimated $ 40 billion in tariff revenue from goods that passed through Mexico or Canada. Sandy Huffaker / Getty Images

Tariff escalation led to enforcement gaps in Mexico rerouted goods: report

By Eric Johnson

New research from software vendor Altana found that some of the declining China – US trade flows last year morphed into complex, multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico via intermediary Asian nations to qualify for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement( USMCA) treatment.

The company analyzed shipment-level supply chain data from its platform, plus a survey of 91 US trade professionals that include former lawmakers and customs officials, according to its April 23 report.

The report contends that activity is illegal under current US customs rules, and that the US has lost approximately $ 40 billion in tariff revenue from goods that passed through Mexico or Canada under the USMCA treaty without going through a substantial transformation.

While China – US direct trade from January through October 2025 fell 28 % to $ 276.5 billion compared with the same period in 2024, trade from Vietnam to Mexico rose 46 % to $ 18.1 billion, according to data from UN Comtrade, which tracks annual global trade flows. The data also showed that trade rose 19 % from Thailand to Mexico in the same period, and by 13 % from Malaysia to Mexico. Direct Mexico to US imports, meanwhile, rose 6 % to $ 450.5 billion.

Scrutinizing transshipment

The Altana report suggests that these trade spikes used existing transshipment pathways, meaning the tariffs didn’ t immediately induce“ new, capital-intensive supply chain relationships,” but rather rerouted goods“ being pumped through established networks of suppliers, facilities and

www. joc. com actors.” To wit, Altana said transactions observed in its network on those“ pre-existing transshipment routes that end in the USMCA bloc” rose 76 % year over year in the first 10 months of 2025.

“ The estimated dollar value of shipments demonstrating patterns consistent with illegal transshipment rose sharply throughout 2025, accelerating at each major tariff escalation,” the report said.

In January and February 2025, Altana identified $ 2.2 billion per month of“ suspected transshipment-linked trade entering the US.” By December, that number had reached $ 31.5 billion. The Trump administration’ s so-called liberation day tariffs were rolled out in early April.

Ultimately, the alleged activity is related to what trade professionals call“ transformation,” the idea that goods stopping in intermediary markets undergo enough of a change to impact country or origin determination, thus allowing those goods to use preferential trade agreements.

“ Shipments demonstrating patterns consistent with illegal transshipment rose sharply throughout 2025, accelerating at each major tariff escalation.”

The Altana report identified vehicles, machinery and electronics as the three sectors most represented in these transshipment paths.

“ A Chinese-origin vehicle subject to a 152 % duty can be rerouted through a Mexico facility and potentially enter the United States at USMCA preferential rates, if it qualifies under rules of origin,” the report said.“ At question is whether meaningful transformation occurred at the Mexican stop, and whether these known transshipment facilities will accurately record regional value content and other, upstream component-level information necessary to calculate and apply complex tariff rates and origin rules.”

email: eric. johnson @ spglobal. com

June 1, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 23