Peak Season Forecast
Special Report
Analysts expect air freight rates to ease as jet fuel prices recede from a 23-year high. Shutterstock. com
“ This is all logical because the spike in air freight rates was driven by a supply issue from the start,” van de Wouw said in an April market update.“ Now, capacity is coming back, [ and ] rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up.
“ The big question is what will be left in terms of demand after all the inflationary pressure, all the uncertainty, and all the tremendous increases in fuel and production costs ease?” he added.“ What will it mean for Q3 and Q4 because everything that has happened in the last few weeks was against a backdrop of a not-too-rosy outlook for 2026?”
For now, pricing on the trans-Pacific trade remains elevated. Average spot air freight rates from Hong Kong to Chicago reached $ 7.01 per kg in the week of May 3, up from $ 4.81 per kg in the last week of February and the highest in more than two years of Xeneta data.
WorldACD said that although rates were rising at a slower pace than in the initial weeks after the Feb. 28 start of the war in the Middle East,“ the closure again of the Strait of Hormuz, further increases in fuel prices, and no end in sight to the confrontation mean we may expect continuing high air cargo spot rates and further increases in the coming weeks linked to the costs and availability of jet fuel.”
Resilience testing
Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, hitting their highest point in 23 years, with reduced petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery constraints tightening global aviation fuel availability, according to the International Air Transport Association( IATA).
“ All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’ s resilience in the coming months,” Willie Walsh, IATA’ s director-general, said in the association’ s April market update.
Van de Wouw said the margins between crude oil and refined jet fuel have exceeded the peaks recorded during
the COVID-19 pandemic, adding a cost burden that carriers cannot easily absorb or ignore. However, by mid-May, global jet fuel prices and the average spread between jet fuel and crude oil, as measured by Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global, had both begun to climb down from their April highs.
The stabilizing of air freight markets as capacity returns will be welcomed by shippers that have been postponing third-quarter and fourth-quarter tenders with freight forwarders while waiting for the market to normalize, van de Wouw said.
“ All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’ s resilience in the coming months.”
“ Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to preshock levels, and the jet fuel shortage, though reportedly spreading, has yet to grip long-haul intercontinental routes at scale,” he said.“ If those conditions hold, spot rates should ease and deliver some reprieve for shippers who have grown accustomed to unwelcome surprises.” Walsh was also cautiously optimistic.“ The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026,” he said.
“ Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh added.
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
18 Journal of Commerce | June 1, 2026 www. joc. com