‘ Any little lift’

Tighter US truckload capacity could fuel H2 recovery: J. B. Hunt, Schneider

By William B. Cassidy

Trucking executives say they are increasingly— albeit still cautiously— optimistic about a recovery in the US freight market, not due to higher demand but because they believe factors including tougher regulatory enforcement will constrain capacity.

They’ re looking to climb out of a volume downturn that has lasted three years, but the latest data on freight demand isn’ t encouraging.

“ I think that there’ s fragileness in supply chains and the supply side, and any little lift will start to be felt,” Bradley W. Hicks, president of dedicated contract services at J. B. Hunt Transport Service, told the 2025 Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference in mid-June.

“ I think we’ ll get back to net growth in the second half,” said Nicholas Hobbs, J. B. Hunt’ s COO and president of highway and final-mile services.“ I can’ t guarantee it’ s by the end of Q3 or if it’ s in Q4; there’ s timing that comes in.”

Mark Rourke, president and CEO of Schneider National, said the truckload market isn’ t“ completely normal,” but it’ s in better shape than many had expected given a soft US economy, a domestic manufacturing decline and the effects of much higher import tariffs on goods from China and Mexico.

“ The worst-case scenarios that were being bandied about haven’ t played out,” Rourke told the event.“ We can certainly see a downturn in the West Coast volumes that we would normally see at this juncture, but there’ s also a lot of bonded warehouse activity still starting to come inland.”

North American surface freight volumes fell 3.6 % in April and 4 % in May, according to Cass. Shutterstock. com

Some of the slack in truckload volumes heading inland from the West Coast has been taken up by volumes in the Midwest and Southwest and cross-border volumes to and from Mexico, he said, adding that,“ domestic demand has been fairly steady, if unspectacular.”

Stuck in a slump

Although carriers say capacity is tightening, shippers told the Journal of Commerce they haven’ t had any trouble finding a truck, and industry indices tracking volumes and rates remain in the doldrums.

Total North American surface freight volumes— both truck and intermodal rail— fell 0.4 % sequentially and 4 % year over year in May following a 3.6 % year-over-year drop in April, according to the Cass Freight Index.

The May shipment decline bucked normal seasonal trends, and volumes likely fell further in June, when normal seasonality would have shipments decline by 2 % year over year, analyst Cass Information Systems said in its monthly index report.

Consumer spending in the first quarter, before the Trump administration introduced higher US tariffs, is still propping up demand, but that support is beginning to weaken.

“ Pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months,” Cass said.

North American truckload rates continued to increase year over year in May, ticking up 0.6 %, but pricing was down 0.8 % from April and 1.5 % from February, according to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which includes spot and contract rates.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics long-distance truckload producer price index( PPI), a measure of shipment costs weighted toward contract rates, rose 3 % from May 2024, the sixth consecutive year-over-year increase. The truckload PPI has remained within a relatively narrow range of 172 to 178 since March 2023 after peaking at 235 in May 2022.

National average spot rates, meanwhile, fell to $ 2.18 per mile in May from $ 2.19 per mile a year earlier and a

US truckload costs grow yoy for sixth straight month in May

US long-haul truckload producer price index( PPI)

180

178

170 176

174

172

170 L Jul Jan 2024 Jul

Jan 2025

TL PPI

Notes: US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services

38 Journal of Commerce | July 7, 2025 www. joc. com

July 7, 2025 | Page 38

‘ Any little lift’