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Carriers‘ ready’ to cut Persian Gulf calls as security threat escalates

By Greg Knowler

Ocean carriers are poised to adjust schedules and omit key Persian Gulf transshipment hubs should Tehran carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping following the US bombing raids on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22.

Shipping lines issued series of customer advisories the next day emphasizing the safety of crew, vessels and cargo as they monitor a rapidly deteriorating security situation.

“ We are actively evaluating potential risks and stand ready to adjust our operations should conditions change,” Hapag-Lloyd said.“ At present, our vessels continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The safety and well-being of our crews and ships remain our highest priority.”

The US launched airstrikes on three of Iran’ s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan early June 22 in a dramatic escalation of the war between Iran and Israel. Iran’ s parliament voted later that day in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz, although the final decision will be made by the Supreme Leader in consultation with the Supreme National Security Council. As of June 23, two days before this issue of the Journal of Commerce went to press, the only entrance to the Persian Gulf remained open to shipping.

Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce analyst, said the industry would be watching for potential retaliation from Iran.

“ But for commercial shipping, the question is not whether or not vessels are attacked; the question is whether or not the risk itself is sufficient to cause a change in vessel deployment to reduce traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post.

The UAE’ s Jebel Ali Port( pictured) is the busiest transshipment hub in the Persian Gulf, handling 15.5 million TEUs in 2024. Shutterstock. com

In a June 23 report, S & P Global Maritime Intelligence said a perceived threat to the survival of current leadership in Iran is likely to heavily influence decision making. S & P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.“ We expect Iran’ s response to first remain focused on continued ballistic missile and [ drone ] attacks on Israel [ and ] being likely to attempt to impede transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” the report noted. Disrupting ship transits could include vessel seizures, GPS / AIS spoofing and the use of military boats to harass vessels, it added.

CMA CGM said in its customer advisory that“ the geopolitical context is evolving... [ W ] e confirm that shipping activities are proceeding as normal in the area, and that our operations and logistics chains remain unchanged.”

However, ocean visibility provider eeSea noted that CMA CGM’ s Europe-Middle East LMX service, in operation since September 2024, has been rerouted, dropping calls to Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi and Jubail in the Persian Gulf and adding a call to the Turkish port of Ambarli near Istanbul, and rebranded as the LRX( Levant Red Sea Express).

Key transshipment hub

Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be felt first in the energy markets. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global, more than 17 million barrels of crude oil each day move through Hormuz, coming not just from Iran, but from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar. That is more than 20 % of daily global crude production.

But container traffic would face significant disruption as well, with 4 % of global volume passing through the strait in 2024, primarily destined for the United Arab Emirates’ transshipment hubs of Jebel Ali and Khalifa, and for the ports of Dammam in Saudi Arabia and Doha in Qatar.

Jebel Ali, which handled 15.5 million TEUs in 2024, has become the region’ s leading transshipment hub with feeder services connecting ports across the Persian Gulf, South Asia and East Africa. A blockade of Hormuz would see calls diverted to neighboring gateways in India, Oman and East Africa, where a surge in transshipment demand could lead to congestion and delays, according to S & P Global Market Intelligence.

Multipurpose carrier AAL Shipping said in a statement it was“ deeply concerned” with the war and its impact on shipping in the region, warning of a rising cost element to the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.

“[ S ] uch evolving threats can lead to increased insurance premiums and other security-related costs, affecting operational considerations for all parties,” it said.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the conflict, Maersk said cut calls to the Mediterranean port of Haifa, Israel.

“ After carefully analyzing threat risk reports regarding the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran— particularly the potential risks of calling specific Israeli ports and their implications for the safety of our crews— Maersk has made the decision to temporarily suspend vessel calls at the Port of Haifa, Israel, and also suspend cargo acceptance for Haifa,” the carrier said in an advisory June 20.

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com

16 Journal of Commerce | July 7, 2025 www. joc. com