SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION
INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE
The industrial real estate sector is expecting increased demand and leasing activity in the first half of 2026.
The US industrial real estate sector is experiencing a mid-cycle recalibration. Following a period of unprecedented market stressors created by tariff volatility and shifting trade policies, the market is more resilient than expected.“ We’ re experiencing increased demand and leasing activity in the first half of 2026 as compared to 2025 or 2024, as tenants have adjusted to the new normal and tariff policy has been less volatile,” said Brandi Hanback, executive vice president, head of development, and head of FTZ, Trade & Logistics at Rockefeller Group, a major private real estate developer, owner and investor based in New York City.
“ We’ re also seeing a steady increase in site tours of our projects across the country, as well as in requests for proposals.”
While the market is improving, data from investment management firm Colliers shows a massive 63 % drop in national industrial construction pipeline volume since peaking in late 2022. However, the slowdown is paving the way for a healthier supply-anddemand balance. Fueled in part by the rapid rise of AI, shifting supply chains and nearshoring, market leaders are finding robust pockets of growth across the country.
Despite these positive indicators, ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and broader economic conditions continues to influence where developers invest and where tenants choose to lease.
“ The choppiness in the industrial sector, especially since the spring of 2025, doesn’ t appear to be going away any time soon,” said Jeff Thornton, executive vice president and head of the Central region at CenterPoint Properties, a national industrial real estate owner and developer based in Oak Brook, Ill.
“ Owners and developers are being forced to operate under the assumption that there’ s going to be continued uncertainty around tariffs, and tenants’ total occupancy cost will be uncertain and likely elevated for the foreseeable future.”
Tariff volatility
Tariff policy continues to create unpredictability for importers and logistics operators, affecting warehouse leasing decisions, site selection and inventory strategies in major port markets. As companies seek to manage costs and remain agile, many are turning to third-party logistics providers( 3PLs) rather than committing to long-term real estate strategies.
In fact, 3PLs are projected to account for more than 35 % of leasing activity this year as more companies outsource distribution to achieve shorter lease terms and flexible footprints to offset tariff-related costs, according to CBRE’ s 2026 Industrial Outlook.
Thornton noted that larger, established brand-name companies have become less inclined to commit to longterm leases. Instead, they’ re outsourcing more to 3PLs, which have been seeking shorter-term leases. This gives them the flexibility to scale their space up or down as dictated by their contracts with consumer products companies.
“ There will probably be some continued re-trading of rents and leases, particularly on the coasts,” Thornton said.“ The uncertainty from a macroeconomic standpoint in the US and from a geopolitical standpoint around the world is affecting coastal markets more than non-coastal markets close to major population centers.”
Thornton added that CenterPoint’ s larger buildings and stronger credit tenants in the Central US have continued to perform well because the company’ s portfolio has long focused on serving local and regional population centers rather than relying heavily on inventory flowing through major ports.
“ That’ s the real key to why we’ re seeing stronger performance there,” he said.“ Alternatively, there’ s solid rent growth in our tier-one Central region markets, particularly Chicago, Houston, Dallas and Austin.” Thornton also noted that rents have continued to rise, while some coastal markets have seen rent declines.
While coastal uncertainty is real, some gateway markets are already rebounding, and savvy developers are deploying specialized trade strategies to help occupiers offset high tariff costs.
“ Absorption in the Northeast and Southern California, including the Inland Empire, has improved,” Hanback said.“ New construction starts have halted significantly, which is setting the stage for a reduced supply, especially in the new construction of bulk space modern distribution buildings.”
Foreign Trade Zones( FTZs) can help tenants protect their cash flow and reduce tax burdens amid volatile tariff www. joc. com July 6, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 51